Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

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Thanksgiving travel weather

  • 5:59 am Wednesday, November 22nd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Fog advisory posted in the gray areas could be extended to parts of South and East Georgia until 9am this Wednesday morning:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY:

TODAYS WEATHER:

THANKSGIVING DAY WEATHER:

FRIDAY WEATHER:

SATURDAY WPC WEATHER:

SUNDAY TRAVEL WEATHER:

FOLLOW me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Week of Thanksgiving weather

  • 5:00 pm Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

THANKSGIVING DAY weather in ATLANTA looks to have a mix of sun and clouds with a high around 59 and lows at night of 34-39. But as you’ll see below a system nearby will have rain and IF it were to shift north a chance of rain would come to Atlanta Thursday.

I will update as needed through the week here and on the radio.

FRIDAY shopping looks mostly sunny with highs of 62 and lows at night of 38-42.

These graphics represent the best estimate consensus national outlook:

WEDNESDAY AM:

WEDNESDAY MID-DAY:

WEDNESDAY PM:

THANKSGIVING AM:

THANKSGIVING PM:

FRIDAY:

SATURDAY:

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS:

WxBell GFS and ECMWF Ensemble temperature guidance:

SIMULATED FORECAST [More]

Thanksgiving weather uncertain

  • 7:25 am Thursday, November 16th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The computer models have been swinging wildly back and forth over the past week as they try to determine the week ahead and beyond. This seems likely due to their struggling to handle changing energy and ocean patterns in the Pacific.

There looks to be at least SOME chance of rain Thanksgiving give or take a day, but as of now the odds look SMALL. However, confidence in the forecast one way or the other is low due to the high chaos factor currently in the data.

This is also true for temperature specifics, but as of now the next 15-days look [More]

Not all La Nina winters are the same

  • 12:03 pm Monday, November 13th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

In my preliminary winter outlook I pointed out that ONE starting point as a signal to what this winter might be like is the expectation for a weak La Nina. The “cool” equatorial Pacific Ocean sister to the “warm” equatorial El Nino brother.

There is some disagreement between the U.S. NOAA weather agencies and the Australian on the status of La Nina now and going forward:

Australian BOM:

However, two very important points I try to remind people of is (A) La Nina OR El Nino is just ONE “driver” of seasonal weather, not the only one. And (B) not every El Nino [More]

Weather now through Thanksgiving

  • 11:00 am Sunday, November 12th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Rain chance and clouds will be going away on Monday, followed by weak fair weather high pressure with a moderate air mass. Temperatures will be fairly normal for this time of year to slightly warmer than normal for daytime highs. Highs mostly in the 60s with lows mostly in the 40s.

MONDAY:

TUESDAY:

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY:

The chance of rain returns Friday night into Saturday as the next cold front arrives. After a warmer tend later this week, it turns chilly again behind that front next weekend into Thanksgiving week.

RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY:

GFS SATURDAY AM 11/25:

EUROWX.COM SUNDAY 11/26:

16-DAY TEMPERATURE PATTERN GFS:

Thanksgiving has a chance [More]

Changeable weather next few weeks

  • 5:30 am Tuesday, November 7th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

A more active weather pattern is taking shape this week and beyond with the return of rain and cooler temperatures.

No big air mass change today with a slow moving cold front and waves of low pressure just to our north and west eventually moving into and through the area, bringing an increasing rain chance north to south, first in the mountains and far north suburbs then increasing in coverage across the area by Wednesday and Thursday along with much cooler temperatures:

Rain starts to diminish Thursday afternoon and seasonably cool dry weather follows Friday and Saturday as Canadian high pressure “wedges” [More]

Preliminary winter outlook

  • 7:44 am Thursday, November 2nd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The forecast methodology is the analog method combined with some long-term model output. The idea is that what’s past is prologue, or the future is history. So we search for past years when factors influencing seasonal weather are a match to what has been seen this summer and so far this autumn and what is expected to be seen in the months ahead in terms of large scale drivers, like the global ocean sea-surface temperature patterns (not just in the Pacific).

Once an acceptable list of analog years is obtained they are composited together to get the mean outcome of those [More]

Cold in and out

  • 5:57 pm Sunday, October 29th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The weak La Nina base state to the atmosphere continues in front of us, as cold comes but can not hold.

Instead we progress back to the trough and cool west ridge and warm east pattern we’ve seen most of September and October. So temperatures here quickly begin to moderate:

But longer term the ridge shrinks over the south as the pattern tries to shift to some weak ridging out west:

So cooler air presses into the Northern U.S. and the unseasonably warm weather here backs off:

This pattern of brief cool spells interrupted by above normal temperatures looks like it will largely persist [More]

Looking only at current La Nina status for winter

  • 5:43 pm Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

If NOTHING else is considered, here’s a shake down of the winter based ONLY off the current shape of the Pacific in the La Nina zone. And by the way, you never make a forecast by looking at only one input. So this is but one signal, and it may look different by forecast issuance time.

Above are past years (or analogs) that look similar in Pacific to this year… as of now.

RESULTANT UPPER AIR PATTERN:

Ridges west and trough over Great Lakes region.

RESULTANT SURFACE TEMP ANOMALY:

No two are ever exactly alike, but typically in a La Nina December is the warmest [More]

Warm November not expected

  • 11:11 am Sunday, October 22nd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The outlook does not call for a cold month of November per se, but it does NOT look like the abnormally warm weather pattern of September to first half of October will continue.

I’ve been signalling this trend on Twitter for many weeks now, thanks to using old school teleconnection methods like the re-curving Pacific typhoon rule, the Bearing Straits low rule, Alaska-West Canada ridge and hints at a +PNA -NAO -EPO/WPO.

You can google those if interested. But they all suggest an upper-air jet stream pattern with some ridging west and a trough east as shown on previous posts.

As an over [More]

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