Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

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Couple more unsettled days, then big change

  • 8:34 am Monday, August 20th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

There will be plenty of dry hours but the prospect of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is still with us for another couple days.

A moist southwest flow of air at all levels, an approaching upper-level trough and disturbances aloft and an approaching cold front are the combo for producing that.

It’s all part of a major (for this time of year) strong storm system in the center of the country. Even pulling down lows in the upper 30sF in the upper plains!

MID-DAY TUESDAY:

WEDNESDAY MORNING:

3-DAY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL ESTIMATE AVERAGE:

Wednesday through Friday fair weather high pressure takes control and we turn off [More]

Autumn outlook

  • 9:40 am Friday, August 17th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

No signs of anything too extreme this Fall one way or the other. That’s nice, because I think autumn is often one of our most lovely seasons in these parts.

First some modeling data.

The CFSv2 most recent run did an about face from a warm Fall to a cool one:

The ECMWF Ensemble next 6 weeks:

CANADIAN MODEL MONTHLIES:

The JAMSTECH MODEL FROM JMA FOR SEPT-NOVEMBER:

The SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER CONSENSUS OF AMERICAN/CANADIAN MODELS:

The NMME shows October temperatures about average then the following two months a tad above-normal. As for rainfall the NMME shows above-normal rain for September then near-normal for the following two months.

THE CONSENSUS OF [More]

Winter outlook ingredients

  • 4:37 am Thursday, August 16th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Long time readers of my blog already know it is far too early to make a stab at a winter forecast, they also know there are hundreds of variables that impact the outcome of any given winter. Some of those are NOT even knowable more than a few weeks in advance, for others it’s too early for the data to be used because months of change lie ahead.

Of course I stick to science so I don’t use squirrels, other animals, wooly worms, bee and bird nests, thunder days or fog days or any other old wives tales which have been [More]

Another weather pattern change

  • 6:58 am Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

We’ve enjoyed an extended spell of rain-free weather with lower than normal humidity.

Even though the humidity will gradually increase, MOST of us will stay dry the next few days with below-normal odds of a thundershower.

This is thanks to a ridge of high pressure over us with a fairly dry Northwest flow aloft:

However, the flow aloft starts to switch around with the ridge shifting east and a trough of low pressure to our west, giving us a Southwest flow to begin to increase humidity levels Wednesday/Thursday and beyond:

As that southwest upper-level flow continues into the weekend and beyond the rain odds [More]

Drier pattern still expected

  • 6:06 am Friday, August 3rd, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Since the start of the week the expectation has been the wet pattern will start to break down and five days later the forecast remains the same.

Trees continue to fall and cause problems thanks to the soggy soils unable to support the root zone. Rain amounts this week accumulated in a range from 2 inches to 7 inches on average across the metro area.

Rain amounts yesterday alone were as high as 3 inches in spots south, while other areas got only a quarter of an inch or less:

The worst of the rainy weather is behind us now. The rain and [More]

How was July for the record?

  • 6:18 am Thursday, August 2nd, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Compared to normal or climate average and contrasted with so many past July patterns of recent decades the lack of extreme heat stood out this year, and like the spring and start of summer so did the higher than normal cloud cover, rain odds and high humidity.

We ended up just over half a degree warmer than normal officially at Hartsfield, mainly due to warm nights rather than hot days. There were 16 days of 90 or above. The hottest was 94 on the 12th and the lowest 68 on the 23rd and 29th.

It’s worth pointing out that the “official” thermometer [More]

More rain today, but improvement ahead

  • 5:43 am Thursday, August 2nd, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Trees have been falling in parts of the metro area, not from widespread severe weather but thanks to the soggy soils that can’t support the root zones. We warned you that could  happen on the radio yesterday morning.

Yesterday there was only a single lone severe storm in the area in the early evening, unfortunately it came in the form of a brief small tornado (unconfirmed) in Social Circle damaging a number of homes.

Today through next Tuesday NO severe weather is expected, although a stray strong storm can’t be ruled out. The high humidity will continue.

The FLASH FLOOD WATCH (green) continues [More]

Tropical weather pattern continues

  • 6:16 am Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

As stated days ago it will not rain everywhere all the time, but a shower will be possible anytime of the day or night. However, peak coverage and intensity will reach a maximum in the afternoon and early evening hours, at least on most days.

Tropical downpours with huge rain drops will be on and off the next few days along with isolated thunderstorms in the mix at times.

Greater than normal cloud cover and high humidity will continue as well along with cooler than normal high temperatures.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH (green) continues metro wide through 8am Friday:

There were some strong thunderstorms in [More]

Unsettled week of weather

  • 6:23 am Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

I wrote four days ago we were going to see a reversal of the sunny drier weather pattern we had and it’s happening.

The jet stream configuration is changing and it will bring frontal low pressure systems at the surface and disturbances aloft to the region out of the Southwest flow feeding us a tropical air mass. The humidity will be rising as a result, cloud cover will be on the increase, the rain and thunderstorm chance will go up and the temperatures will come down as we move through the next 4 days. In fact most days will have below-normal [More]

Hot and dry pattern to reverse

  • 7:19 am Friday, July 27th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

We are in a new heat wave, something that has been few and far between this summer.

The American Meteorological Society Glossary of Meteorology defines a heat wave by convention as at least 3 days of at least 90F for a daytime high:

Many parts of the metro area have been 90 or so since the 24th and we have at least three more days to go. But overnight low temperatures are running a bit below average thanks to the dip in the humidity. We are between 😍 and 😐 for the next couple days.

While a stray or “rogue” late day thunderstorm [More]

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