Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

113 items
Results 1 - 10 of 113 next >

Dry replaces the wet in Atlanta

  • 9:47 am Thursday, September 20th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

After a muggy summer lacking in extreme heat but with plenty of scattered showers and storms, humidity and clouds, we flipped to hot and dry in recent weeks with a lot more sunshine, but lower humidity.

In fact, over the past 30 days rainfall across the Metro area is below normal:

Rainfall deficits for the 30-day period running .25 inch to 3.5 inches or from near 0 to 80% below average.

Meanwhile thanks to Florence of course you can see portions of North Carolina 500% or more above-normal:

Drought in widespread in a good part of the country, especially West/Northwest:

Closer to home some drought [More]

Jumping to conclusions about a forecast is a bad idea

  • 3:00 am Thursday, September 20th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Confusion on FLORENCE Category is all wet.

Many correct forecasts receive a poor response from some members of the public or some members of government, even from news people and show hosts. We see it all the time, whether it’s winter weather, spring tornadoes, or hurricanes.

Reminds me of one of our snow/ice storms over the past 5 years here in Atlanta when some people and some government authorities thought a change from a Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory was a downgrade. It was and is not. The forecast and the forecast impacts had not changed, but people jumped [More]

Pattern change to bring some relief

  • 9:10 am Wednesday, September 19th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

The dry spell and heat wave look to start breaking down next week replacing the July/August level temperatures with lower values but more humidity and a return of some rain. Temperatures next week closer to normal for this time of year.

The heat index and the air temperature thermometer highs are close together indicating that the humidity is not as out of control as the temperature. Macon broke a 1931 record high yesterday reaching 100.

First next week and increase in clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will help lower temperatures as high pressure surface and aloft begin to weaken. Then beyond [More]

August level heat, but hints of cooler to come

  • 10:00 am Monday, September 17th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Temperatures up to 10 degrees above normal this week into the weekend but humidity drops for at least a few days. Then it’s back to humid and warm to hot by the weekend.

But there’s some record cold and record snow in parts of Canada while its hot down here.

The “big three” global models are projecting a ‘positive PNA’ (+PNA) jet stream pattern to develop AFTER a period of hot and mostly dry high pressure aloft replacing Florence, this would replace the upper-level ridging with a fall-like trough by late September or to open October (ridge West/Trough East) providing at least [More]

The last of Florence, tropics quiet down for now

  • 5:45 am Monday, September 17th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Florence certainly impacted Atlanta weather over the weekend but with little effect as expected with a few scattered thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon after a sunny start. Then a few showers Sunday with lots of clouds and humidity but cooler temperatures for most.

Yesterday the high temperatures ranged from 88 in Peachtree City to just 78 In Gainesville.

The lingering influence of Florence on the backside of the system means only a stray shower or thunderstorm in the Atlanta Metro area today or tomorrow, most of us will stay dry. Another week of August-like weather in store lasting right into at least early [More]

Georgia brush with Florence

  • 11:02 am Sunday, September 16th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

As expected Florence having minimal impact on Atlanta weather and not much in Georgia in general. A few scattered thunderstorms Saturday and a few showers in the area Sunday and lower than normal temperatures with high humidity.

Florence will continue to weaken as it moves Northeast and loses its influence on Atlanta weather will a partial clearing trend Monday.

FLORENCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS… 

Southeastern North Carolina and far northeast South Carolina:

Additional 3 to 6 inches of rain…with isolated maximum of 8
inches possible…with storm total accumulations of [More]

Florence update

  • 10:24 am Saturday, September 15th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE CRAWLING WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA… HEAVY RAINS AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA

The left or backside of Florence will exert some influence on ATLANTA WEATHER today through Monday but nothing out of the ordinary. Greater negative impacts will be closer to the South Carolina/North Carolina border.

For Atlanta just a few scattered showers and thunderstorms and a gusty breeze at times (12-20 mph for Atlanta).

The N/NE winds gusting to 28 mph will be noticeable for the UGA Bulldogs in Athens today and a shower spun off from Florence is possible late [More]

Just the beginning of Florence

  • 11:24 am Friday, September 14th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

The wind damage and storm surge inundation flooding will continue with dangerous storm surge and flash flooding, battering waves and beach erosion as the tropical cyclone slowly but steadily unwinds. Record rainfall will be measured in feet in some areas when all is said and done.

The 105 mph wind gust at Wilmington, NC was the second strongest on record.

Even as winds diminish near the coasts the flooding will continue with more rain bands to come and the risk of an isolated tornado.

As far as the water and rain this is a marathon not a sprint. There will be a long-term [More]

Florence hits, minimal impact for Atlanta

  • 4:57 am Friday, September 14th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA…

CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS… …CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA, CAT 1. But impacts more like a Cat 2 or 3 as explained in prior blog post.

Wind gusts of 105 mph at Wilmington NC the second strongest on record.

Water rescues underway or planned when conditions allow for the bright people who chose to ignore warnings in parts of Coastal NC with wind gusts to 115 mph and up to 10 foot storm surge along with battering waves and torrential [More]

Florence perspectives

  • 6:39 pm Thursday, September 13th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Let me take you a little behind the scenes, behind the forecast curtain if you will.

Meteorology (science) often gets lost on the hype train of the general public, news media, and much worse on social media. Everyone becomes a meteorologist because they saw something on YouTube, Periscope, ____Live, Reddit etc. or someone shared a map on Facebook they aren’t qualified to understand or interpret. (They are media-ologists lol)

Whenever there’s a big weather system it becomes amateur hour, the wrong things I see people say on social media or overhear out in public is horrifying and leaves me shaking my head [More]

113 items
Results 1 - 10 of 113 next >
Archives: 2018