Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

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Preliminary Summer Forecast

  • 9:00 am Thursday, April 20th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Using the atmospheric signal from the expected evolution of an ENSO base state forms the basis for the early thinking on the coming summer.

To repeat for those new to it, the analog method of long-range forecasting seeks matches from past weather history to current and expected trends to extrapolate the future.

Pacific ocean is coming off a La Nina and has been hovering around neutral for a couple months now. A weak to moderate El Nino is expected to emerge by late summer or fall.

The warmest departures from normal are expected out West and in the East with the coolest readings [More]

Georgia drought update

  • 5:54 am Friday, April 14th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The stormy weather of last week has helped ease the drought, but it’s far from gone as you can see in the maps below.

In north-central Georgia, recent rain merited a broad one-category improvement in the drought depiction, while conditions deteriorated one-category (from D0 to D1) in extreme southeastern parts of the Peach state.

Widespread one-category deterioration was rendered across the central and southern Florida Peninsula this week. A broad expansion of severe drought (D2) was made in this area, based on Percent of Normal Precipitation (PNP) values less than 50-percent since the beginning of the Water Year (Oct 1, 2016), and [More]

Quiet weather pattern

  • 6:14 pm Monday, April 10th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Odds of a shower or thundershower Wednesday through Easter Sunday are not zero, but they are too low to worry about and no severe weather is expected.

Temperatures will continue to run well above normal for this time of year.

5-DAY RAINFALL ESTIMATE:

ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE:

Wind and Chill behind the storms

  • 5:53 am Thursday, April 6th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Strong gusty winds Thursday and Friday will put a bite in the air with much cooler temperatures. Chilly temperatures and the wind chill factor will make it feel like its in the 40s all day.

WIND ADVISORY: Gusty winds can break tree limps, interrupt stop lights, and cause drought weakened trees to fall in soggy soils.

Patchy light frost will be possible Friday night-Saturday morning with some freezing temps in the mountains.

GFS OUTPUT:

CANADIAN MODEL:

NAM OUTPUT:

NAM3K OUTPUT:

ECMWF OUTPUT:

Even cold enough for some snow showers in the nearby mountains tonight into Friday:

Severe weather trends

  • 12:58 pm Wednesday, April 5th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

(edited UPDATE 5pm)

Rain-cooled air is more stable than warm humid air most of the time, therefore extensive rain and clouds can be a limiting factor for afternoon and evening severe weather in the cooler areas.

This does not mean NO severe is possible just a lower threat. This is not any kind of “all clear” statement for the Metro. Storms can still be dangerous even if they are few and far between.

The next round of storms will depend on developments in jet stream dynamics and thermodynamics to our west ahead of that cold front. Forecast updates on the radio all afternoon [More]

Severe weather threat Wednesday

  • 6:00 am Tuesday, April 4th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

(UPDATED 9am WEDNESDAY):

No need to panic or be hysterical, it is after all severe weather season. April is a peak month here in Georgia. Most of the country has been in a relatively quiet tornado cycle for the past 5-6 years, especially here in the Southeast U.S.

The risk today has the potential to be worse than Monday. Storms will be possible anytime of the day or evening, but there may be two focused rounds one mid morning to early afternoon then another late afternoon and evening will a lull in-between. The second and third rounds are more likely to be [More]

Severe weather alert

  • 11:18 am Monday, April 3rd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Severe thunderstorm Watch until 5pm for most of the Metro area.

Warnings for tornadoes and severe storms have already been issued.

Severe weather threat Today

  • 10:20 am Monday, April 3rd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

There is a slight risk of  severe thunderstorms Monday, higher risk south and east of Atlanta. The threat level is a 2 on a scale of 1-5 for the Atlanta area.

The prospect for scattered Power Outages in the Metro looks to be low to moderate.

From the Storm Prediction Center:

A midlevel trough now moving over MO/AR/LA will eject
east-northeastward to the OH Valley and southern Appalachians by
this evening, and continue to the Mid-Atlantic coast by the end of
the period. An associated surface cyclone will likewise develop
northeastward [More]

Active weather again next week

  • 6:27 am Friday, March 31st, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

A nice weekend is on hand with cool nights and warm afternoons.

Local Spring Break week weather looks changeable, as I told you in an earlier post we’ve entered a more changeable weather pattern with a new weather system about every 3 days or so. This pattern may last through the first third to half of April.

MONDAY WEATHER MAP:

MONDAY AM RAINFALL:

MONDAY AFTERNOON RAINFALL:

MONDAY NIGHT RAINFALL:

WEDNESDAY WEATHER MAP:

THURSDAY WEATHER MAP:

Chance of a few hit and miss showers Tuesday and Wednesday better chance Thursday. A  noticeable shift to much cooler temperatures. Can not rule out a light frost in some northern rural areas [More]

Some storms likely tonight

  • 7:42 am Thursday, March 30th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Most of us should get home from work today dry, although a few hit and miss showers or thundershowers are possible late afternoon.

The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms will go up overnight, with some heavy downpours and a few severe storms possible, with potential for large hail and damaging winds in some storms.

There is a chance gulf coast storms will disrupt the inflow of warm, moist air into Georgia and that clouds will reduce the instability due to limited solar surface heating today. This, in turn, would result in a lowered overall severe weather threat, especially if it [More]

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