Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

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Changes in the weather

  • 8:07 am Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Our latest “mini heat wave” is near its zenith with hot and muggy summer weather today and tomorrow with only a small handful of hit or miss end of day pop up storms. Highs 90-94 and lows 70-75. The mid day Heat Index or “feels like factor” topping out around 98 each day in the shade.

But changes are on the way that will bring more comfortable weather with less heat and a little less humidity on the weekend, especially noticeable by Sunday into the first half of next week!

In the transition the risk of severe weather will go up: first [More]

Drought over for now, why water restrictions?

  • 5:59 am Friday, July 14th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Most counties and cities in Metro Atlanta still have water use restrictions in place. The reason is not the lack of rain or a drought classification, but rather concern for water supply going forward the rest of the summer and fall.

Keep in mind, it may rain somewhere almost every day, it does NOT rain everywhere every day. And the region that needs the most rain is too small to adequately feed Lake Lanier.

A combination of humidity, wind speed and temperature impact water evaporation and can be 25 million gallons a day or more for large lakes, drops of a foot [More]

Heat wave coming?

  • 5:00 am Thursday, July 13th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

I’ve blogged and tweeted about the unusually high level of poor weather computer model performance the past few months in trying to predict hot dry weather of a lasting nature. They keep showing it coming, then back off those projections, and in the end it fails to show up.

Short-term we are having pretty typical July heat a couple degrees either side of 90 with a ridge aloft flexing in from the Bermuda High over the Atlantic with a 594 height:

Many of the models are showing the West ridge edging east for much of the remainder of July and on/off for [More]

Dog days of summer and storms in Hotlanta

  • 5:34 pm Wednesday, July 12th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

There has been a noticeable lack of heat this spring and summer, and a concurrent and naturally related conspicuous presence of greater than normal wetness.

This has not been “the norm” in recent decades though with extreme heat and drought common for months on end. So this spring and early summer has been a break. My A/C and water bills are appreciative.

I’ve explained in many previous blogs what it takes to get high heat with little rain and about “positive feedback loops” that perpetuate one type of weather pattern or the other and how and why they tend to persist for [More]

Different kind of summer in Atlanta

  • 7:48 am Wednesday, July 5th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

This certainly is not the kind of spring and summer we’ve grown accustomed to in Georgia in recent decades with frequent droughts. More often than not, like JUST LAST YEAR, Summer started in April or May and did not relent until September or October with long streaks of 90+ days, multiple 95-100+ days, lots of sun and fewer than normal pop up storms.

Instead, we have ONLY hit 90 5 times this year and we just went above 90 for the FIRST time July 5th, the 6th latest on record to have a high above 90!

So in many ways, June and the [More]

No drought in Atlanta

  • 8:08 am Friday, June 30th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

ONLY the southernmost edge of the Atlanta Metro area still has a slight drought lingering, and in the entire state only 12, 600 residents are under a drought classification.

The rain is back AFTER the 6-day dry spell we had.

No surprise given how much more than normal rain has fallen over the past 60 days:

5-15 inches last two months, 30 to 100% above-normal:

And there is NO sustained hot spell in sight rest of the summer, just come and go heat.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TODAY:

3-DAY RAINFALL ON AVERAGE:

And no return to severe drought as above-average rain expected between now and mid-August:

Georgia saw substantial [More]

Drought largely gone in Atlanta

  • 12:24 pm Sunday, June 25th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Southeast

The summer rainy season continued across Florida and southern Georgia, and was enhanced by a slow-moving cold front and developing tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico (which became Tropical Storm Cindy Tuesday afternoon) late in the week. Most locations in Florida and southern Georgia saw 2 inches or more rain during the week, with up to a foot in south-central Florida. A few areas in central Florida and southern Georgia, however, only saw 1-2 inches of rain, thus improvements were limited to 1-category, and with lingering long-term (6-12 months) indices at D1-D2 in the region, a few small areas [More]

From bad to good weather

  • 1:00 pm Friday, June 23rd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

There is light at the end of the prolonged wet and/or cloudy spell we have been going through. As I’ve been advertising on the radio for a few days now a prolonged dry spell is expected to begin Sunday and last through next Thursday, with modest thunderstorm chances returning Friday and next weekend. By the way, from this long distance, 4th of July weather looks pretty typical for the Metro, very warm and humid with around a 30% chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm.

But first things first. We are still in a warm very deep moist tropical air mass. [More]

Any hot summer weather fleeting

  • 9:00 am Wednesday, June 21st, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

It was a rather pleasant spring and now the first summer month too has been cooler than normal. Hot weather has not lasted more than a couple or few days so far this year.

It sure saves the lawn and bushes a lot of stress and saves the watering bill and the A/C bill, so I like it. But I am sure sun tanning fans are not thrilled.

It still looks like from today past the 4th of July real hot weather will continue to be hard to come by. Then odds of some heat go up if the new Weekly European [More]

Cindy! Tropical Storm in Gulf

  • 2:15 pm Tuesday, June 20th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

…DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY…
…HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST…

The primary threat is days on end of periodic rain in the South and Southeast and flooding at times scattered across most of the South, worse of course Central Gulf Coast.

Cindy joins Bret. Two at once in June has only happened three times, 1909, 1959 and 1968!! However, 2012 came close.

Satellite imagery, aircraft data, and surface observations indicate
that the low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico has
acquired a well-defined center, and is now Tropical Storm Cindy, the
third tropical storm of 2017.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 [More]

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