Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

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Flash Flood Watch continues

  • 7:00 am Tuesday, May 23rd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The National Weather Service is posting a Flash Flood Watch for most of Metro Atlanta  through 2pm Wednesday.

The greatest risk currently appears to be near or south of I-20 and I-85.

Scattered showers Monday become more overnight and Tuesday, on and off into the first part of Thursday.

Rainfall amounts for Atlanta next 2-day totals ESTIMATED to be 1 inches on average, with isolated totals of 3 inches possible.

Uncertainty exists on the exact location and timing of the heaviest rain and storms, so stay tuned to the radio for updates and check back for future forecast revisions.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FIRST HALF OF [More]

Drought shrinkage

  • 6:49 am Friday, May 5th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Parts of Metro Atlanta are no longer in drought, and the extreme drought in the mountains has shrunk. Meanwhile, more of downstate Georgia has entered into drought conditions, so it’s a mixed bag. Total Georgians under a drought classification 4.1 million.

RAIN NEEDED TO WIPE OUT DROUGHT (chart will be updated soon):

Temperatures were 3-6 degrees above normal for the week while above-normal precipitation was very spotty and associated with thunderstorm activity. Many areas of Florida, southern Georgia and the coastal Carolinas were last week.

Portions of Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, central Tennessee, and North Carolina recorded over 200 percent of normal precipitation.

The [More]

Warm April, warm since January 1st

  • 6:34 am Tuesday, May 2nd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

It’s the warmest start to a year on record for a large chunk of the United States from the Southwest to the Ohio Valley.

The NWS Atlanta shows us how April shaped up in the local region:

In fact, a climate analysis shows that the past month our weather has been more like we’re living in New Orleans, and the past month two months our weather has been akin to Dallas, Texas. For the year to date, like living in Las Vegas.

But as I’ve been showing on Twitter for weeks now, the month of May looks to try to break the trend, [More]

Extreme drought eases off, but moderate drought expands

  • 12:00 pm Thursday, April 27th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Periods of soaking rain the past 7 days has eased off the extreme drought in North Georgia. However, rainfall deficits remain. In fact, while there has been a great deal of improvement in the severity of drought in North Georgia general drought has expanded across the state as a whole. But for now areas on Atlanta’s South side are no longer in drought.

Heavy to excessive rainfall alleviated drought but triggered flooding across interior portions of the region, while hot, dry weather caused drought to intensify and expand farther south.

A slow-moving storm system coupled with abundant subtropical moisture generated 2 to [More]

Preliminary Summer Forecast

  • 9:00 am Thursday, April 20th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Using the atmospheric signal from the expected evolution of an ENSO base state forms the basis for the early thinking on the coming summer.

To repeat for those new to it, the analog method of long-range forecasting seeks matches from past weather history to current and expected trends to extrapolate the future.

Pacific ocean is coming off a La Nina and has been hovering around neutral for a couple months now. A weak to moderate El Nino is expected to emerge by late summer or fall.

The warmest departures from normal are expected out West and in the East with the coolest readings [More]

Georgia drought update

  • 5:54 am Friday, April 14th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The stormy weather of last week has helped ease the drought, but it’s far from gone as you can see in the maps below.

In north-central Georgia, recent rain merited a broad one-category improvement in the drought depiction, while conditions deteriorated one-category (from D0 to D1) in extreme southeastern parts of the Peach state.

Widespread one-category deterioration was rendered across the central and southern Florida Peninsula this week. A broad expansion of severe drought (D2) was made in this area, based on Percent of Normal Precipitation (PNP) values less than 50-percent since the beginning of the Water Year (Oct 1, 2016), and [More]

Quiet weather pattern

  • 6:14 pm Monday, April 10th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Odds of a shower or thundershower Wednesday through Easter Sunday are not zero, but they are too low to worry about and no severe weather is expected.

Temperatures will continue to run well above normal for this time of year.

5-DAY RAINFALL ESTIMATE:

ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE:

Wind and Chill behind the storms

  • 5:53 am Thursday, April 6th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Strong gusty winds Thursday and Friday will put a bite in the air with much cooler temperatures. Chilly temperatures and the wind chill factor will make it feel like its in the 40s all day.

WIND ADVISORY: Gusty winds can break tree limps, interrupt stop lights, and cause drought weakened trees to fall in soggy soils.

Patchy light frost will be possible Friday night-Saturday morning with some freezing temps in the mountains.

GFS OUTPUT:

CANADIAN MODEL:

NAM OUTPUT:

NAM3K OUTPUT:

ECMWF OUTPUT:

Even cold enough for some snow showers in the nearby mountains tonight into Friday:

Severe weather trends

  • 12:58 pm Wednesday, April 5th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

(edited UPDATE 5pm)

Rain-cooled air is more stable than warm humid air most of the time, therefore extensive rain and clouds can be a limiting factor for afternoon and evening severe weather in the cooler areas.

This does not mean NO severe is possible just a lower threat. This is not any kind of “all clear” statement for the Metro. Storms can still be dangerous even if they are few and far between.

The next round of storms will depend on developments in jet stream dynamics and thermodynamics to our west ahead of that cold front. Forecast updates on the radio all afternoon [More]

Severe weather threat Wednesday

  • 6:00 am Tuesday, April 4th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

(UPDATED 9am WEDNESDAY):

No need to panic or be hysterical, it is after all severe weather season. April is a peak month here in Georgia. Most of the country has been in a relatively quiet tornado cycle for the past 5-6 years, especially here in the Southeast U.S.

The risk today has the potential to be worse than Monday. Storms will be possible anytime of the day or evening, but there may be two focused rounds one mid morning to early afternoon then another late afternoon and evening will a lull in-between. The second and third rounds are more likely to be [More]

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