Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

Temperature pendulum to swing again

  • 4:01 pm Sunday, January 15th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The full bloom January Thaw is not expected to continue through the rest of winter.

We have been in a cycle of cold spells roughly 28 days apart since November.

So signs of Old Man Winter should be seen by the end of this Month, preceded by warmth and a severe weather threat.

IF IF the models are right about the “Sudden Stratospheric Warming” event above the North Pole and Canada and IF they are correct in projecting a the shift in the MJO/EPO/AO/NAO/PNA/WPO then a colder and stormier jet stream configuration is coming east of the Rockies end of this month into [More]

Drought eases off

  • 6:46 am Wednesday, January 11th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

There is no longer any part of Georgia under the worst drought classification.

However, over 17 million people in the Southeast are still in a drought area including 9% of the Southeast in extreme drought and 20% in severe drought.

In the latest update for Georgia 7.4 million residents are in drought. Still that represents considerable improvement. Extreme drought in the state is down to 19% and severe drought down to 34%.

Storm hindsight is 20/20

  • 6:50 pm Sunday, January 8th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Long-time listeners to WSB Radio 955 FM and AM 750 and/or long-time readers of my blogs the past 29 years (less for the web obviously) already know much of this as I explain it every winter.

Like predicting the future of the stock market or economy, or an election, or who will win the World Series or who will be in the Super Bowl and win it, forecasting is hard. What happened yesterday or what’s happening now is easy.

Much like when we show you hurricane track forecasts there is a RANGE of possible outcomes where the eye of the storm will [More]

Polar air behind the mini storm

  • 3:06 pm Saturday, January 7th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Just a brush with sleet, freezing rain and snow for the metro.

And its a good thing given the deep freeze that is following the winter storm system.

Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing Saturday with a deep freeze Sunday morning. Wind chill will make it feel dangerously cold without sufficient protection.

But the dry air and some sunshine combined with the DOT pre-treated roads should make travel/driving road conditions fine in most areas before long.

That also means minimal black ice concerns so work and school should be pretty normal Monday.


Much warmer weather warmer weather is not far off as [More]

Winter Storm Warning

  • 5:20 pm Friday, January 6th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The models have more or less finally come together but differ greatly on amounts, types and locations of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain.

In summation of what I think, the usual: Most of the snow far north metro, most of the rain far south metro. A mix at times for everyone, and eventually flakes for everyone but they will be a disappointment inconsequential for many. However, the drop in temps by early Saturday will mean whatever falls turns to ice.

Models showing nothing in Atlanta and models showing 10 inches of snow in Atlanta are the outliers, so while either extreme [More]

Winter system coming but detailsTBD

  • 6:55 am Wednesday, January 4th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Models have at least ROUGHLY converged on the idea that there WILL be a winter weather system by Saturday.

The set-up is that a low pressure system forms along a stalled baroclinic zone in the Gulf of Mexico initiated by a “short-wave” trough/vorticity (energy) in the jet stream coming from out west (yellow and red on 500mb chart).

This occurs as a cold front moves down from the north representing the leading edge of polar air. The gulf low spreads moisture north to meet the cold air lifted up by the jet stream energy:

Friday AM above, Saturday AM below:

Do the models agree [More]

Snow/ice threat for SE US real, too early for specifics

  • 1:33 pm Tuesday, January 3rd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

If you have not been following my previous post on this, please read for additional insight/background.

Last week the models were showing something for January 7 then they took away on the weekend then brought it back by Monday. The GFS model was once most aggressive with it but now the GFS model is the weakest while the European model which was weakest with the system for Jan 6-7 is one of the strongest with this potential snowstorm.




Notice how the ECMWF ensemble has 7 out of 51 [More]

Cold to return, snow odds to be monitored

  • 5:12 am Tuesday, January 3rd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Cold weather returns the winter chill to end this week and beyond.

There is model chaos on winter precipitation, with some models showing a significant snow for Metro Atlanta north, others showing little.

Too far off for one thing, model divergence too great for another. So WAY too soon to get excited or worried.

Yes there is a chance for winter mischief in the medium range and confidence is growing that there will be a winter system of some kind, but confidence in specifics is low.
For example in just one day over just 12 hours the GFS went from nothing to big time [More]