Posted: 5:12 am Tuesday, January 3rd, 2017
By Kirk Mellish
Cold weather returns the winter chill to end this week and beyond.
There is model chaos on winter precipitation, with some models showing a significant snow for Metro Atlanta north, others showing little.
Too far off for one thing, model divergence too great for another. So WAY too soon to get excited or worried.
Yes there is a chance for winter mischief in the medium range and confidence is growing that there will be a winter system of some kind, but confidence in specifics is low.
For example in just one day over just 12 hours the GFS went from nothing to big time snow. So why trust either version? You don’t. The systems in question are not even being sampled yet by the US upper air data net because they’re over the Pacific.
There is a lot of blocking in the atmosphere and very fast jet stream speeds and split jets leading to models struggling with timing and strength/location of systems. So anything beyond 3 days is real tough in this type pattern.
Models differ on precip type, locations, amounts, and even timing… from afternoon Friday to not until early Saturday.
Maybe by Thursday there will be some clarity. Stay tuned on Twitter here and wsbradio.com AND RIGHT ON THE RADIO via any streaming device.
That having been said, some winter threat does look legitimate. Including freezing rain/sleet and snow.
Just a heads up for now and something to monitor. At this distance and with the model divergence forecasting is just this: