Posted: 1:33 pm Tuesday, January 3rd, 2017
By Kirk Mellish
If you have not been following my previous post on this, please read for additional insight/background.
Last week the models were showing something for January 7 then they took away on the weekend then brought it back by Monday. The GFS model was once most aggressive with it but now the GFS model is the weakest while the European model which was weakest with the system for Jan 6-7 is one of the strongest with this potential snowstorm.
The point here is consistency. We need some model consistency. The UKMET model has been one of the most steady. But there have at least been multiple model runs for a couple days showing SOME SHORT OF SYSTEM. This tells me the odds of it just being dry and turning cold are low.
The type system being depicted is called a “Miller A”. You can google it if you don’t remember our past discussions on it.
At this point all I am ready to commit to is that I think it’s fair to say the “threat” of snow and/or ice is increasing SOMETIME in the Friday/Saturday time frame.
Keep in mind there are some 7 dozen different models depending on how you count. They depict different versions of the future and change constantly. They are VIRTUAL REALITY weather NOT REAL WEATHER, NOT a guaranteed outcome… like any forecast about the future.
So the following maps are for illustration ONLY as an FYI to you, but they are not my forecast. To soon to make a call.
FRIDAY AM SURFACE WEATHER MAP:
CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL SNOW OUTPUT BELOW:
GFS GLOBAL MODEL SNOW OUTPUT:
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE SNOW OUTPUT FOR PDK:
Notice how the ECMWF ensemble has 7 out of 51 members showing snow (dark grey or colors) with a mean of a bit over half an inch at PDK, some 44 members (white) show no accumulation.
Conclusion: some kind of system looks real, some snow/ice threat looks legitimate. Details TBD. Forecast ‘should’ solidify during day tomorrow.
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