Posted: 6:55 am Wednesday, January 4th, 2017

Winter system coming but detailsTBD 

By Kirk Mellish

Models have at least ROUGHLY converged on the idea that there WILL be a winter weather system by Saturday.

The set-up is that a low pressure system forms along a stalled baroclinic zone in the Gulf of Mexico initiated by a “short-wave” trough/vorticity (energy) in the jet stream coming from out west (yellow and red on 500mb chart).

This occurs as a cold front moves down from the north representing the leading edge of polar air. The gulf low spreads moisture north to meet the cold air lifted up by the jet stream energy:

screen-shot-2017-01-04-at-7-14-25-am

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Friday AM above, Saturday AM below:

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Do the models agree on when it starts? If it will be rain or snow or sleet? On the amounts? On the locations?? NO, no they do NOT. As always.

So nothing is written in stone and a lot can and WILL change, so stay tuned. AS OF NOW, it looks like roads should not be a problem in the metro until after dark Friday at the earliest. But Saturday could be a bit of a mess. Obviously all this is subject to change.

Play it safe… have a PLAN B for late Friday and Friday night, and plan NOT to travel Saturday and you’ll be fine even IF something happens. And you’ll be ready to go if nothing happens.

EURO MODEL FRIDAY NIGHT:

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EURO MODEL SATURDAY:

screen-shot-2017-01-04-at-5-32-53-am

STATISTICAL ODDS OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW FRIDAY:

screen-shot-2017-01-04-at-5-02-36-am

STATISTICAL CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW SATURDAY AM:

screen-shot-2017-01-04-at-5-03-22-am

Looks a long way from 100% to me just doing the simple math.

There is a very wide range of snowfall amounts projected from the various algorithms, they include a lot and they include almost nothing!

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB and the forecast page online at wsbradio.com and listen to WSB radio on any device. Thanks.

See previous blog posts for more background.

screen-shot-2017-01-03-at-9-48-39-pm

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