Spring has sprung with lack of winter 

Posted: 8:37 am Friday, February 3rd, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

Winter on the meteorological calendar runs until March 1st. The Spring Equinox is March 20th.

As I’ve said a dozen times on twitter I won’t give up on Old Man Winter until after mid February.

This winter has been marked by long spells of near-normal weather, long dry and wet spells alternating. Unseasonably warm periods interrupted by brief cold waves. And of course just one significant winter storm.

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Winter Storm Summary NWS

We can tell with our own eyes and noses that the mild winter has lead the plants to bud or bloom EARLY in many areas of the south kick starting spring allergy season:

si-x-average_leaf_ncep_si-x-states

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Budding and blooming are early this season

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Looking ahead the rest of this month and spring, I expect the winter pattern to continue. Brief cold snaps will interrupt near-normal spells and unseasonably warm periods.

PRELIMINARY SPRING OUTLOOK: (update later this month)

 

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I think the severe weather season will be near-normal to slightly elevated.

NEXT 60-DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

screen_shot_2017_02_03_at_8_19_50_am

Based on the Sea Surface temperature pattern as of December the best matches to past years are the analogs of: 1952/53, 1959/60, 1960/61, 1998/99, 2003/04, 2013/14. Which IF correct, yielded this is the past:

cd2601_cd_c103_e5c0_6048_f6f6_ac72_2a1f-33-12-31-59-prcp

cd2601_cd_c103_e5c0_6048_f6f6_ac72_2a1f-33-12-32-21-prcp

So those analog years at least, suggest that the mild winter does not mean we leap into an early summer for the start of spring.

NOAA/NWS/CPC OUTLOOK MARCH-MAY:

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