Old Man Winter rabbit trick? 

Posted: 4:57 pm Thursday, February 9th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

Looking for winter weather has preoccupied many this season given all the warm spells and record highs. But even the greatest detectives have not had much success in most of the deep south.



Our latest two cold snaps brought frost or freeze but were quickly followed by the return of 60s or 70 degree weather.

And here we go again with spring-like weather followed by a 24 hour cold snap.

OH LOOK, models are suggesting a repeat next week and beyond. How unusual, NOT:




Gosh, that sure looks familiar doesn’t it?

For those of you not on Twitter, I just sent this out to my followers @MellishMeterWSB:



Due to the chaotic pattern of global ocean temperature patterns playing havoc with the jet streams and jet stream speeds the models performance beyond 4 days has been abnormally bad for many many months now.

It remains to be seen if Old Man Winter can “pull a rabbit out of his hat” and bring at least another brush with winter precipitation this month or next.



Just because the various equations in numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output are hinting at a favorable general pattern next Thursday give or take a day, I take it with an extra large grain of sea salt and am not forecasting anything at this time.

Mainly because every time the models have shoved any substantial cold air far into the Southeast they have been way off the mark–and ended up playing catch up, warming up as the time drew closer. MAYBE this will be the first time the trend to colder and colder in the medium and long range though actually happens, but for now I remain skeptical.

But as of now the models are trending colder again next Wednesday through next Friday, just in time for the possible ejection of the vorticity from the Southwest upper level low (500mb) as seen above.

However, for the aforementioned reasons and due to the lack of support from ensemble guidance, for now it’s just another episode of “looking for winter weather” NOT a forecast that it’s coming.