Eye on severe weather season 

Posted: 8:21 am Monday, March 6th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

I mentioned in my spring weather outlook that the strength and configuration of the sub-tropical jet stream keeps alive concern for a more active than normal severe weather season, although the worst may be in the Midwest and Southern Plains, perhaps staying just to our west and north, but its a close call depending on how quickly El Nino comes on.

Another factor is the warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico waters. That means more evaporation and warm air energy. When the winds turn southerly this increases the humidity (dew points and wet bulbs) that are the juice to fuel storms:




Research also shows tendencies based on the phase of El Nino or La Nina:


We are coming off a weak La Nina and in neutral to weak warm phase now, with models projecting El Nino by late summer:



Hopefully we can keep the worst of severe weather northwest of Atlanta but there are no guarantees.