Posted: 4:25 pm Monday, March 20th, 2017

Looking ahead 

By Kirk Mellish

The springtime temperature swings continue but the longer trends point to above-normal temperatures winning out on average through the coming month of April.

A more active jet stream looks to increase chances for storminess in the longer term as well. But early signs still indicate the worst of it to our north and west.

610temp.new

 

 

2017032000_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198

610prcp.new

814temp.new

814prcp.new

The American model is warmer than the European ensemble:

KPDK_2017032012_min_max_16

KATL_2017032000_eps_min_max_15

Models both statistical and dynamical are still projecting at least weak El Nino conditions in the summer, maybe moderate:

Screen_Shot_2017_03_20_at_12_30_23_PM

El Nino is associated with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. But it remains to be seen if the El Nino will come on fast enough and strong enough to influence this season.

EL Nino La Nina and severe weather season in the U.S.

APRIL ANALOG MAPS:

image

cd2601_cd_c103_e5c0_7599_75ae_791_32dc.77.9.31.59.prcp

Predicting specific high and low temperatures weeks in advance is not scientifically possible, so for frost and freeze risks we let climatology be our guide:

Screen Shot 2017-03-21 at 5.36.37 AM

lastfreeze

Latest freeze dates

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s