Posted: 6:05 pm Tuesday, March 21st, 2017

Severe threat hit and miss 

By Kirk Mellish

The area under at least some threat of a strong or severe thunderstorm this evening covers 4-8 million people:Screen Shot 2017-03-21 at 5.58.53 PM

Widespread heavy showers and storms tonight. However, not every one will get a severe storm as they are spaced apart.

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Screen Shot 2017-03-21 at 5.54.55 PM

Screen Shot 2017-03-21 at 5.55.33 PM

The threat is greatest the farther north of I-285 you go (and east) and the lowest the farther South and west of I-285 you go. The risk goes down after 11pm and the chance of rain goes away completely by 3am.

The danger of a tornado in the metro is very low although not zero. The main threats are isolated strait line wind gusts to 70mph and hail of an inch or two in diameter. This will occur in some storms but not all.

Here is just ONE of many SIMULATED radar models to ESTIMATE storm coverage and movement:

HRRR model radar simulation forecast estimate

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