Posted: 7:42 am Thursday, March 30th, 2017
By Kirk Mellish
Most of us should get home from work today dry, although a few hit and miss showers or thundershowers are possible late afternoon.
The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms will go up overnight, with some heavy downpours and a few severe storms possible, with potential for large hail and damaging winds in some storms.
There is a chance gulf coast storms will disrupt the inflow of warm, moist air into Georgia and that clouds will reduce the instability due to limited solar surface heating today. This, in turn, would result in a lowered overall severe weather threat, especially if it comes in late enough tonight for a more stable atmosphere. Model guidance has not been consistent, so uncertainty remains concerning the evolution of thunderstorms over the metro area end of day and overnight.
THURSDAY AM WEATHER MAP:
THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON WEATHER MAP:
EARLY EVENING WEATHER MAP:
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT SURFACE WEATHER MAP:
FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER MAP:
FRIDAY END OF DAY WEATHER MAP:
STANDARD RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT:
As of now the greatest threat looks to be west and north of Atlanta, but of course that could change, so stay tuned for updates on the radio all day and night. Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB and the forecast page at wsbradio.com
Convection and associated cloud cover continues to cast uncertainty with respect to areas of potentially greater insolation and thus destabilization, but it appears that at least modest instability will evolve along and ahead of the advancing cold front -- which should extend southward from a western Illinois surface low roughly along the Mississippi River around midday. With mixed-layer CAPE values likely reaching 500 to 1500 J/kg by early afternoon in the wake of prior convection, new storm development should begin. Organization of the storms will be augmented by strong lower- and middle-tropospheric south-southwesterly flow, and though turning with height will remain limited in most areas, speed shear suggests both rotating storms and small-scale bowing segments will evolve with time. Along with potential for hail, damaging winds are expected, and a few tornadoes will be possible as well -- particularly over the lower Ohio Valley area where a more southeasterly component to the surface flow should exist ahead of the low and in the vicinity of the warm front. Convection may organize into a broken band, spreading eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf coastal states through the afternoon and evening, along with attendant severe potential. 24 HOUR RAINFALL PROJECTION: