Posted: 10:20 am Monday, April 3rd, 2017
By Kirk Mellish
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Monday, higher risk south and east of Atlanta. The threat level is a 2 on a scale of 1-5 for the Atlanta area.
The prospect for scattered Power Outages in the Metro looks to be low to moderate.
From the Storm Prediction Center:
A midlevel trough now moving over MO/AR/LA will eject east-northeastward to the OH Valley and southern Appalachians by this evening, and continue to the Mid-Atlantic coast by the end of the period. An associated surface cyclone will likewise develop northeastward from MO to southeast Lower MI by 12z Tuesday. The cold front trailing southward from the MO cyclone is somewhat ill-defined this morning as a result of widespread pre-frontal convection that now extends from central AL to extreme southeast MS. This band of convection will likely persist through the day while moving eastward across AL/GA and the FL Panhandle, where the convection will be maintained by an influx of mid 60s to low 70s boundary layer dewpoints from the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Low-midlevel flow/shear will remain fairly strong but largely line-parallel across southeast AL/southwest GA/FL Panhandle, which will support occasional damaging gusts and some embedded circulations in the line. The northern extent of the squall line will initially remain along the northern edge of the surface-based instability, but closer to the path of the midlevel speed max. The convective band will encounter a secondary corridor of low-level moisture/confluence from the FL Atlantic coast northward along the Savannah River valley by early afternoon, where additional scattered thunderstorm development is possible. Somewhat greater buoyancy and storm mergers into the squall line, as well as more line-normal low-midlevel shear orientation for north-south line segments, should result in an increase in the damaging wind risk from eastern GA into SC this afternoon. Also, the more discrete cells ahead of the line could become supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes. Storms will begin to weaken this evening as the boundary layer stabilizes gradually, and the midlevel wave begins to pass north of the remaining unstable warm sector.
Things can and will change so check back for updates and listen to the radio Monday for the latest. Another severe weather risk comes on Wednesday: TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEATHER MAP: WEDNESDAY AM WEATHER MAP: Colder weather follows to end the week and start the weekend. As I've been saying for days now, there could even be snow flurries in the NE Georgia mountain by Friday.