Posted: 10:20 am Monday, April 3rd, 2017

Severe weather threat Today 

By Kirk Mellish

There is a slight risk of  severe thunderstorms Monday, higher risk south and east of Atlanta. The threat level is a 2 on a scale of 1-5 for the Atlanta area.

The prospect for scattered Power Outages in the Metro looks to be low to moderate.

From the Storm Prediction Center:

   A midlevel trough now moving over MO/AR/LA will eject
   east-northeastward to the OH Valley and southern Appalachians by
   this evening, and continue to the Mid-Atlantic coast by the end of
   the period.  An associated surface cyclone will likewise develop
   northeastward from MO to southeast Lower MI by 12z Tuesday.  The
   cold front trailing southward from the MO cyclone is somewhat
   ill-defined this morning as a result of widespread pre-frontal
   convection that now extends from central AL to extreme southeast MS.
    This band of convection will likely persist through the day while
   moving eastward across AL/GA and the FL Panhandle, where the
   convection will be maintained by an influx of mid 60s to low 70s
   boundary layer dewpoints from the northeast Gulf of Mexico. 
   Low-midlevel flow/shear will remain fairly strong but largely
   line-parallel across southeast AL/southwest GA/FL Panhandle, which
   will support occasional damaging gusts and some embedded
   circulations in the line.

   The northern extent of the squall line will initially remain along
   the northern edge of the surface-based instability, but closer to
   the path of the midlevel speed max.  The convective band will
   encounter a secondary corridor of low-level moisture/confluence from
   the FL Atlantic coast northward along the Savannah River valley by
   early afternoon, where additional scattered thunderstorm development
   is possible.  Somewhat greater buoyancy and storm mergers into the
   squall line, as well as more line-normal low-midlevel shear
   orientation for north-south line segments, should result in an
   increase in the damaging wind risk from eastern GA into SC this
   afternoon.  Also, the more discrete cells ahead of the line could
   become supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes. 
   Storms will begin to weaken this evening as the boundary layer
   stabilizes gradually, and the midlevel wave begins to pass north of
   the remaining unstable warm sector.
GA_swody1 Things can and will change so check back for updates and listen to the radio Monday for the latest. Another severe weather risk comes on Wednesday: Screen Shot 2017-04-03 at 10.00.00 AM TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEATHER MAP: 98fndfd_init_2017040200 WEDNESDAY AM WEATHER MAP: Screen Shot 2017-04-02 at 11.29.56 AM Colder weather follows to end the week and start the weekend. As I've been saying for days now, there could even be snow flurries in the NE Georgia mountain by Friday.

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