Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

Impediments to hot dry summer

  • 4:45 pm Tuesday, May 30th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

As I’ve been Tweeting and blogging about for weeks now, while we may end up on the “warmer than normal” side of the ledger when the summer is in the record book, ENSO trends, most but not all numerical variants, and the relentless Pacific Jet Stream being stronger than normal point to a muted heat up.

The relative wetness of May has really helped the drought to fade. That is important in two ways. The one is it helps prevent a positive feed back loop that helps create more heat and drought in summer. Dry ground means more sun energy goes [More]

Drought reversal in North Georgia, South dry

  • 5:01 pm Thursday, May 25th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

After 11 consecutive months of drought in most of North and Central Georgia the April and May rains have brought a lot of relief.

1.6 million Georgia residents are under a drought classification, but most of those are in South Georgia, a big reversal from past months where the Mountains were in extreme drought or worse.

On a national basis the extent of drought is at it’s lowest since they started tracking it in 2000, at just 5% of the lower 48 states.

During the past 7 days in Georgia 3.4 Trillion gallons of rain has fallen, 4.9 the past 21 days, and [More]

Models have cooler wetter June and summer

  • 5:13 pm Wednesday, May 24th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Much of the computer modeling for June and the summer has been trending cooler and wetter for the next 90 days for a good chunk of the U.S. compared to prior projections from the numerical variants.

They have a tendency for below-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall in the center of the nation into the SE. This does not mean cold.

However, the analog sets based on a slow to develop and weak El Nino base state are the opposite of the numerical equations. So confidence is low for the summer outlook one way or the other thanks to the discrepancy.

I still think [More]

Drought shrinkage

  • 6:49 am Friday, May 5th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Parts of Metro Atlanta are no longer in drought, and the extreme drought in the mountains has shrunk. Meanwhile, more of downstate Georgia has entered into drought conditions, so it’s a mixed bag. Total Georgians under a drought classification 4.1 million.

RAIN NEEDED TO WIPE OUT DROUGHT (chart will be updated soon):

Temperatures were 3-6 degrees above normal for the week while above-normal precipitation was very spotty and associated with thunderstorm activity. Many areas of Florida, southern Georgia and the coastal Carolinas were last week.

Portions of Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, central Tennessee, and North Carolina recorded over 200 percent of normal precipitation.

The [More]

Warm April, warm since January 1st

  • 6:34 am Tuesday, May 2nd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

It’s the warmest start to a year on record for a large chunk of the United States from the Southwest to the Ohio Valley.

The NWS Atlanta shows us how April shaped up in the local region:

In fact, a climate analysis shows that the past month our weather has been more like we’re living in New Orleans, and the past month two months our weather has been akin to Dallas, Texas. For the year to date, like living in Las Vegas.

But as I’ve been showing on Twitter for weeks now, the month of May looks to try to break the trend, [More]