Posted: 6:34 am Tuesday, May 2nd, 2017

Warm April, warm since January 1st 

By Kirk Mellish

It’s the warmest start to a year on record for a large chunk of the United States from the Southwest to the Ohio Valley.

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The NWS Atlanta shows us how April shaped up in the local region:

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In fact, a climate analysis shows that the past month our weather has been more like we’re living in New Orleans, and the past month two months our weather has been akin to Dallas, Texas. For the year to date, like living in Las Vegas.

But as I’ve been showing on Twitter for weeks now, the month of May looks to try to break the trend, starting with a cool down Thursday into the weekend, thanks to this pattern change in the jet stream flow:

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FRIDAY MORNING WIND CHILL FACTOR (feels like temp):

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SATURDAY MORNING LOWS:

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The next 4-6 weeks do not look nearly as warm as the last 6+ weeks.

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That doesn’t mean it’s going to be cold all the time or that there won’t be some warm days, this is the average of highs and lows through the 10-day period.

MODEL BASED ANALOG RESULT FOR 500MB FLOW:

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So the month of May looks to be closer to normal as cool spells and warm spells balance each other out. Cooler weather first half warmer than normal the second half of May on into June.

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MONTH OF MAY WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE QBO like we have now:

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The models are not as cool and are a little more wet in the SE than the above QBO analogs.

The strength of EL Nino and how quickly it comes on, if it does at all, is also a factor for the summer ahead:

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The month of May will give us some clues about the summer to follow. If we dry out again this month it would increase the odds of a hotter summer, a wet May will increase the odds of a more normal summer.

Here’s what the data reveals about summer following a cool May based on past history:

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