Models have cooler wetter June and summer 

Posted: 5:13 pm Wednesday, May 24th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

Much of the computer modeling for June and the summer has been trending cooler and wetter for the next 90 days for a good chunk of the U.S. compared to prior projections from the numerical variants.

They have a tendency for below-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall in the center of the nation into the SE. This does not mean cold.

However, the analog sets based on a slow to develop and weak El Nino base state are the opposite of the numerical equations. So confidence is low for the summer outlook one way or the other thanks to the discrepancy.

I still think the true heat and dry spells of summer for the Southeast U.S. will be slow to develop. The recent rains shrinking the drought are a good sign. May droughts often lead to hot dry June months and then the positive feedback loop can lead to an intensification of that for the rest of summer and into autumn.

So while I still think Georgia and surrounding areas end up with a warmer than normal summer on average and perhaps a little drier than normal when it’s all added up, it still does not look like a brutal long relentless heat endless summer type year. So the general expectation from my preliminary summer outlook previously issued has not yet changed substantively.

Atlanta did already get it’s first 90 degree day a couple weeks earlier than the June 1 normal!

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The Commodity weather projection for cooling energy demand on a nationally weighted basis indicates a less hot summer than the last two years and less hot than the 10-year average, warmer than 2014 but just a tad above the 30-year normal:

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When the sun is out in force, use caution against sunburn and skin cancer. We are in the high sun period:

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