Impediments to hot dry summer 

Posted: 4:45 pm Tuesday, May 30th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

As I’ve been Tweeting and blogging about for weeks now, while we may end up on the “warmer than normal” side of the ledger when the summer is in the record book, ENSO trends, most but not all numerical variants, and the relentless Pacific Jet Stream being stronger than normal point to a muted heat up.

The relative wetness of May has really helped the drought to fade. That is important in two ways. The one is it helps prevent a positive feed back loop that helps create more heat and drought in summer. Dry ground means more sun energy goes into heating the air which in turn drys the ground more, leading to more heat and more drought. And the lack of moisture in the soils and lakes/streams lessens the humidity moisture source for the typical summer “popcorn” thundershowers leading to more heat and dryness.

So that fear has been mitigated for the month ahead at the very least.

The other way the wetness of May is significant is it tells us where mother nature wants it to rain, where the active storm track is in the mean. Although it is normal for that track to shift northward in the heart and end of summer.

Screen Shot 2017-05-30 at 12.14.34 PM

On a nationwide population basis the ENSO AND MODELS SUGGEST COMPARED

DBFzr_kXYAA9KsX.jpg_large

Screen Shot 2017-05-30 at 12.13.28 PM

The ECMWF ENSEMBLE is on board for most if not all of June:

Screen Shot 2017-05-30 at 12.10.54 PM

That does not mean cold, and it suggests above-normal rain and high humidity at times.

July and August look closer to normal but the odds of long-lasting brutal heat are lower than in recent years.

eps_t2m_1104h_conus_185(59)

This does NOT mean every single day or week is below normal just the average is for June and IF the model is right early July.

EURO ENSEMBLE RAINFALL COMPARED TO NORMAL 46-day mean:

eps_qpf_1104h_conus_185(42)

It’s dubious to take a long-range week by week breakdown from the models at face value, but if it verifies seems to suggest at least somewhat normal hot weather around the 4TH of July, or at least in the ballpark of average:

eps_t2m_168h_northamer_10(56)

ANALOG YEARS PAINT A LITTLE HOTTER AND DRIER PICTURE BUT NOT DRASTICALLY SO IN THE SE:

TEMPS:

Screen Shot 2017-05-30 at 4.39.24 PM

RAIN:

Screen Shot 2017-05-30 at 4.37.34 PM

So as always there are some conflicting signals, but that’s normal whenever looking to the future in anything.

I for one like having spring weather in spring, and I like some pool weather in summertime, but I don’t mind a break on my A/C bills and my watering bill. I also like a deep lake for swimming and boating.

FOLLOW ME on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

 

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