Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

No drought in Atlanta

  • 8:08 am Friday, June 30th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

ONLY the southernmost edge of the Atlanta Metro area still has a slight drought lingering, and in the entire state only 12, 600 residents are under a drought classification.

The rain is back AFTER the 6-day dry spell we had.

No surprise given how much more than normal rain has fallen over the past 60 days:

5-15 inches last two months, 30 to 100% above-normal:

And there is NO sustained hot spell in sight rest of the summer, just come and go heat.



And no return to severe drought as above-average rain expected between now and mid-August:

Georgia saw substantial [More]

Drought largely gone in Atlanta

  • 12:24 pm Sunday, June 25th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish


The summer rainy season continued across Florida and southern Georgia, and was enhanced by a slow-moving cold front and developing tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico (which became Tropical Storm Cindy Tuesday afternoon) late in the week. Most locations in Florida and southern Georgia saw 2 inches or more rain during the week, with up to a foot in south-central Florida. A few areas in central Florida and southern Georgia, however, only saw 1-2 inches of rain, thus improvements were limited to 1-category, and with lingering long-term (6-12 months) indices at D1-D2 in the region, a few small areas [More]

From bad to good weather

  • 1:00 pm Friday, June 23rd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

There is light at the end of the prolonged wet and/or cloudy spell we have been going through. As I’ve been advertising on the radio for a few days now a prolonged dry spell is expected to begin Sunday and last through next Thursday, with modest thunderstorm chances returning Friday and next weekend. By the way, from this long distance, 4th of July weather looks pretty typical for the Metro, very warm and humid with around a 30% chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm.

But first things first. We are still in a warm very deep moist tropical air mass. [More]

Any hot summer weather fleeting

  • 9:00 am Wednesday, June 21st, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

It was a rather pleasant spring and now the first summer month too has been cooler than normal. Hot weather has not lasted more than a couple or few days so far this year.

It sure saves the lawn and bushes a lot of stress and saves the watering bill and the A/C bill, so I like it. But I am sure sun tanning fans are not thrilled.

It still looks like from today past the 4th of July real hot weather will continue to be hard to come by. Then odds of some heat go up if the new Weekly European [More]

Cindy! Tropical Storm in Gulf

  • 2:15 pm Tuesday, June 20th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish


The primary threat is days on end of periodic rain in the South and Southeast and flooding at times scattered across most of the South, worse of course Central Gulf Coast.

Cindy joins Bret. Two at once in June has only happened three times, 1909, 1959 and 1968!! However, 2012 came close.

Satellite imagery, aircraft data, and surface observations indicate
that the low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico has
acquired a well-defined center, and is now Tropical Storm Cindy, the
third tropical storm of 2017.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 [More]

Tropical activity kicking up

  • 7:45 pm Monday, June 19th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

June tropical cyclones are not that unprecedented in the Gulf of Mexico, but many years don’t have one! It is even more rare to have a storm east of the Greater Antilles this early as we are watching now with Bret.

It is worth bearing in mind that in the pre-satellite era many storms we can detect now would have gone unnoticed. But in over 164 years of weather history there’s never been an East Caribbean storm in June. Bret is also lowest latitude storm in June since 1933.

That being said, research by Dr. Gray has found that storms in the [More]

Drought gone in most of Metro Atlanta

  • 8:52 am Thursday, June 8th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Wet weather prevailed in the Southeast where rainfall amounts of over 4 inches fell in areas of southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The excess rainfall helped alleviate abnormally dry and drought conditions in parts of eastern Alabama, Georgia, and Florida.

However, drought and dryness still linger at timescales longer than about 3 months. This week’s map reflects a one-category improvement in conditions in the drought/abnormally dry areas of South Carolina.

Recent rains also resulted in improvements to the drought/abnormally dry areas in northern and central Georgia as streamflow and soil moisture conditions improved.

In the southern part of the state, moderate (D1) [More]

Late June-August signals mixed

  • 7:22 pm Sunday, June 4th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Models and analog methods are hotter and drier for mid to late June through August.

They depict the jet stream storm track retreating toward if not into Canada while high pressure ridging aloft expands from California, Mexico and the Desert SW into much of Dixie.

A standard method in synoptic meteorology used to indicate summer-level heat trends even without looking at model temperature output, is to look for a jump north by the 588dcm contour of constant height at 500MB, and/or the northward lurch of the 576dcm measure of 1000-500mb thickness value.

500mb height levels in summer of 582 or less are common, [More]

Hurricane season outlook 2017

  • 2:00 pm Thursday, June 1st, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Tropical cyclone season begins June 1st and runs through the end of November.

An early out of season tropical storm already formed back in April named Arlene. It was only the second April tropical storm since the satellite era, that was Ana in 2003.

Rare, earlier than normal storms also developed last season in January and May.

Last year Hurricane Mathew killed 46 people in the Southeast U.S. The 2016 season was the most active since 2012, with 15 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes last year.

The theme of preliminary outlooks for the 2017 season has been that an [More]