Tropical activity kicking up 

Posted: 7:45 pm Monday, June 19th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

June tropical cyclones are not that unprecedented in the Gulf of Mexico, but many years don’t have one! It is even more rare to have a storm east of the Greater Antilles this early as we are watching now with Bret.

It is worth bearing in mind that in the pre-satellite era many storms we can detect now would have gone unnoticed. But in over 164 years of weather history there’s never been an East Caribbean storm in June. Bret is also lowest latitude storm in June since 1933.

That being said, research by Dr. Gray has found that storms in the MDR Main Development Region in June often signal an active hurricane season ahead. Another factor suggesting a more active tropical cyclone season (at the very least not below normal) is the NO-SHOW El Nino, with near-neutral conditions suggested into the middle of winter. This keeps the threat of Gulf Coast and East Coasts alive and the window open again next month and through mid-September.

Bret is the EARLIEST Atlantic MDR named storm ON RECORD in Satellite era, the previous record was Ana on 6/22/1979.

Not convinced it will happen here in 2017 but only 3 Atlantic hurricane seasons on record had 2 concurrent named storms in June: 1909, 1959, and 1968.

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Also watching things closer to home in the Gulf as I’ve been tweeting about for many days now. Even if this system never gets named it will bring flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast:

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I favor the Euro Ensemble with a more westward track of the center of low pressure:

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The European model usually handles heat energy better than the GFS and often does better with jet stream troughs and vorticity interactions.

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I am not convinced it intensifies that quickly thanks because it is fighting 40knot wind shear. Also I still favor more of a Texas hit by Thursday.

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IMPORTANT to notice how much more extensive rain threats are compared to the center of the storm wind impact, in some storms the “cone of uncertainty” is less important:

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All the tracks and intensity forecasts will change multiple times in the days ahead as new data comes in, hurricane hunter aircraft fly missions, and computer projections update and revise.

Any ATLANTA impact appears indirect as we already have a front in the region and a tropical air mass in place. This could juice it up even more and I’ll be updating my 5-day forecast daily on the radio and wsbradio.com.

FOLLOW me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

 

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