Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

Changes in the weather

  • 8:07 am Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Our latest “mini heat wave” is near its zenith with hot and muggy summer weather today and tomorrow with only a small handful of hit or miss end of day pop up storms. Highs 90-94 and lows 70-75. The mid day Heat Index or “feels like factor” topping out around 98 each day in the shade.

But changes are on the way that will bring more comfortable weather with less heat and a little less humidity on the weekend, especially noticeable by Sunday into the first half of next week!

In the transition the risk of severe weather will go up: first [More]

Drought over for now, why water restrictions?

  • 5:59 am Friday, July 14th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Most counties and cities in Metro Atlanta still have water use restrictions in place. The reason is not the lack of rain or a drought classification, but rather concern for water supply going forward the rest of the summer and fall.

Keep in mind, it may rain somewhere almost every day, it does NOT rain everywhere every day. And the region that needs the most rain is too small to adequately feed Lake Lanier.

A combination of humidity, wind speed and temperature impact water evaporation and can be 25 million gallons a day or more for large lakes, drops of a foot [More]

Heat wave coming?

  • 5:00 am Thursday, July 13th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

I’ve blogged and tweeted about the unusually high level of poor weather computer model performance the past few months in trying to predict hot dry weather of a lasting nature. They keep showing it coming, then back off those projections, and in the end it fails to show up.

Short-term we are having pretty typical July heat a couple degrees either side of 90 with a ridge aloft flexing in from the Bermuda High over the Atlantic with a 594 height:

Many of the models are showing the West ridge edging east for much of the remainder of July and on/off for [More]

Dog days of summer and storms in Hotlanta

  • 5:34 pm Wednesday, July 12th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

There has been a noticeable lack of heat this spring and summer, and a concurrent and naturally related conspicuous presence of greater than normal wetness.

This has not been “the norm” in recent decades though with extreme heat and drought common for months on end. So this spring and early summer has been a break. My A/C and water bills are appreciative.

I’ve explained in many previous blogs what it takes to get high heat with little rain and about “positive feedback loops” that perpetuate one type of weather pattern or the other and how and why they tend to persist for [More]

Different kind of summer in Atlanta

  • 7:48 am Wednesday, July 5th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

This certainly is not the kind of spring and summer we’ve grown accustomed to in Georgia in recent decades with frequent droughts. More often than not, like JUST LAST YEAR, Summer started in April or May and did not relent until September or October with long streaks of 90+ days, multiple 95-100+ days, lots of sun and fewer than normal pop up storms.

Instead, we have ONLY hit 90 5 times this year and we just went above 90 for the FIRST time July 5th, the 6th latest on record to have a high above 90!

So in many ways, June and the [More]