Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

Harvey historic

  • 5:11 pm Friday, August 25th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

I must go on assignment out of town so can not update Harvey, sorry about this, long planned necessary business trip to American Meteorological Society conference to meet  continuing education requirements. Sorry.

National Hurricane Center NOAA/NWS

Dangerous Harvey

  • 8:08 am Friday, August 25th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Wind, water, waves, storm surge, flooding, isolated tornadoes for days means extended period of major problems from major hurricane.

Statement from the Corpus Christi weather services minces no words:

Lightning in the eye wall seen early Friday morning:

ESTIMATED RAINFALL NEXT 3 DAYS:

RAIN ESTIMATE DAYS 4-5:

RAIN ESTIMATE DAYS 6-7:

7-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATE:

Some models are actually showing isolated max amounts of 40-72 inches, no doubt overdone, but still.

For perspective:

Also, not sleeping on the potential off the SE coast:

Read previous blog posts for content not repeated here.

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Hurricane Harvey serious business

  • 4:34 pm Thursday, August 24th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

See my previous blog posts and tweets for additional information I won’t repeat here!

The storm will impact a large part of TX and LA as well as MS including inland not just coast as a MAJOR category storm with wind, storm surge, surf/waves, flooding rain, coastal inundation, tornadoes etc. 15-40 inches of rain over multiple days means this will be a memorable/historic storm.

Specifics and details will be in constant flux highly changeable.

Here are some Harvey perspectives in quick hit meme form:

POWER LOSS BASED ON WIND ONLY, OTHER FACTORS NOT INCLUDED:

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Major storm Harvey away from Atlanta for now

  • 12:00 pm Thursday, August 24th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Any impact on Atlanta would be small and indirect next 5-7 days, beyond that it COULD, COULD have significant effects with rain, but uncertainty is too high to make a forecast thanks to erratic behavior expected as of now. I covered this in previous post as well.

It’s been 3,267 days since the last hurricane hit Texas back in 2008 (Ike and Dolly) This is expected to be the next.

Cat 3 storm or worse certainly possible given rapid intensification and favorable water temps and upper-air pattern, low wind shear environment. MAJOR HURRICANE WINDS now a growing threat near eye landfall by [More]

Changing weather, watching “Harvey”

  • 8:44 am Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The heat wave is ending and an extended period of below normal temperatures is on the way, even some temporary humidity relief.

A front passes today with only a few isolated thundershowers around before 6pm.

Drier air mass follows for a couple days, before the ole “wedge” pattern starts to form on the weekend into next week, with interaction from moisture from “Harvey”.

Flooding expected for TX and adjacent areas, how much rain we get from the indirect effects later next week depends on the still uncertain final path of the tropical system.

SURFACE WEATHER CHART LATE TODAY:

SURFACE WEATHER CHARTS SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY:

5-DAY RAINFALL ESTIMATES highlights [More]

Eclipse weather today

  • 5:36 am Monday, August 21st, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Not a clear sky in the Atlanta Metro area this afternoon and not guaranteed dry but conditions look optimistic as most of us stay dry.

As of now it still looks like the majority of us in Metro Atlanta/North Georgia will be able to see all or MOST of the eclipse during the approximately 3 hour window of the event.

For Atlanta northward mostly clear to start the day, then a mix of high level thin cirrus clouds and scattered fair weather cumulus clouds will be on the increase during the course of the afternoon, a stray thundershower far NE and far [More]

Clouds and the Eclipse

  • 10:40 am Sunday, August 20th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

As of now it still looks like the majority of us in Metro Atlanta/North Georgia will be able to see MOST or at least some of the eclipse during the approximately 3 hour window of the event.

For Atlanta northward I expect very few clouds to start the day, then a mix of high level thin cirrus clouds and scattered fair weather cumulus clouds will be on the increase during the course of the afternoon, a stray thundershower far NE and far South can not be ruled out but most of us stay dry.

Special coverage shows on the radio all day!

MODEL [More]

Regional Eclipse cloud outlook

  • 11:46 am Saturday, August 19th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

As of now it still looks like the majority of us in Metro Atlanta/North Georgia will be able to see MOST or at least some of the eclipse during the approximately 3 hour window of the event.

For Atlanta northward I expect very few clouds to start the day, then a mix of high level thin cirrus clouds and scattered fair weather cumulus clouds will be on the increase during the course of the afternoon, a stray thundershower can not be ruled out but most of us stay dry.

Special coverage shows on the radio all day!

MONDAY AM SURFACE WEATHER MAP:

REGIONAL CLOUD [More]

Weather Eclipse Day

  • 5:54 am Friday, August 18th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

A lot can change between now and then because the uncertain location of a front expected to be in the region will play a significant role in sky condition and thunderstorm risk.

As of now I would say I am cautiously optimistic about viewing conditions in the Metro area. Conditions look a bit MORE FAVORABLE in Tennessee and North Carolina, and LESS favorable in South Carolina and South side of Atlanta and Central/South Georgia.

We will probably start the day mostly sunny, then the humidity will lift into a scattering of fair weather cumulus clouds for the afternoon hours giving us intervals [More]

Eclipse Day Weather

  • 6:22 am Thursday, August 17th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The last eclipse of significance in Georgia was March 7 1970. The next one of significance 2045.

A lot can change between now and then because the uncertain location of a front expected to be in the region will play a significant role in sky condition and thunderstorm risk.

As of now I would say I am cautiously optimistic about viewing conditions in the Metro area. Conditions look a bit MORE FAVORABLE in Tennessee and North Carolina, and LESS favorable in South Carolina and South side of Atlanta and Central/South Georgia.

We will probably start the day mostly sunny, then the humidity will [More]