Posted: 4:55 pm Tuesday, August 1st, 2017
By Kirk Mellish
I am guessing you’ve noticed the weather has been weird for many months now. A warm and dry winter-spring brought extreme drought. Then it turned on a dime and it became unusually wet, the drought vanished replaced by sporadic flooding, and sun tanning weather has been hard to come bye.
There are indications of these back and forth swings to continue this month, at least the first half being much like the past couple months…a decided lack of long hot dry sunny spells.
While the August 21 eclipse weather obviously is unknown at this point, the distant look leading up to it is concerning.
PATH AND PERCENTAGE OF ECLIPSE:
This is a shame, because under normal or average August weather patterns viewing would be favorable in much of metro Atlanta. We typically have partly cloudy/partly sunny afternoons in summer so not a clear blue sky, but opportunity for enough space between passing clouds to see the sun.
For example, long-term cloud climate says (NOT a forecast):
ROME/CARTERSVILLE: 27% cloudy, 73% chance of seeing it.
GAINESVILLE: 34% cloudy, 66% chance of seeing it.
ATHENS: 29% cloudy, 71% chance of seeing it.
ATLANTA DEKALB COUNTY PDK: 32% cloudy, 68% chance of seeing it.
SOUTH ATLANTA: 34% cloudy, 66% chance of seeing it.
Mother Nature of course does not go by averages, so we will have to check the weather that day.
Here are some TRENDS from this distance, obviously a lot can change.
Main numerical variants continue to show a lack of heat extending into first part of August:
Amazing to see equations showing almost 0% chance of 90s in Metro Atlanta next 10 days:
And a wet pattern is shown returning as well:
ECMWF model output showing below-normal sunshine through 14th:
Hopefully the pattern does not play out this way, or if it does, it breaks by the 21st. Fingers crossed.
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