Major storm Harvey away from Atlanta for now 

Posted: 12:00 pm Thursday, August 24th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

Any impact on Atlanta would be small and indirect next 5-7 days, beyond that it COULD, COULD have significant effects with rain, but uncertainty is too high to make a forecast thanks to erratic behavior expected as of now. I covered this in previous post as well.

It’s been 3,267 days since the last hurricane hit Texas back in 2008 (Ike and Dolly) This is expected to be the next.

Cat 3 storm or worse certainly possible given rapid intensification and favorable water temps and upper-air pattern, low wind shear environment. MAJOR HURRICANE WINDS now a growing threat near eye landfall by early Saturday.

The NHC now forecasts it to be a category 3 (major) hurricane 115mph at landfall on the TX coast. The catastrophic flood threat is real. But today’s trends are worrisome for winds to be a big issue along the S Texas coast

There is always uncertainty in landfall location. Forecasts shift around. Life-threatening hazards will impact wide area regardless!

Oil and gas prices already rising due to threat to Gulf energy rigs.

 

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Wind and high surf/storm surge now added to the already worrisome flood threat.

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Odds of development off SE coast may be higher than this according to some equations:

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15-Trillion gallons of rainfall forecast for Texas (minimum)

Parts of Texas may get more than half the amount of rain that normally falls in a year in just a few days. However, when you hear or read biblical rainfall so-called forecasts, keep in mind the uncertain path can change that, the HIGHEST amounts may not be widespread if they occur at all. Amounts will add up over days or a week. YES SEVERE FLOODING IS still expected though, NOT just at the coast but inland, too! Including many without flood insurance:

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For example, 5 feet of water would be unprecedented. On the other hand even half that over a few days time would be crippling. Data shows in tropical cyclone history highest 3-day total EVER was 36.31 inches:

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So before believing “social media-rologists” posting fake forecast maps from amateurs/sources you don’t know, or looking at models without having the training to understand them, keep it in perspective.

HISTORY OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES:

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PRIOR TO HARVEY:

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