Hurricane Irma big question mark 

Posted: 10:54 am Monday, September 4th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

Hurricane Irma is a large and dangerous tropical cyclone. But confidence in the track/future path beyond 3-5 days is higher than normal. Even the more reliable models have vacillated more than usual.

This means that while Caribbean impacts are likely, U.S. impact remains unknown but has enough risk to Florida and adjacent areas that preparations are necessary.

There have been no direct landfall hits of a hurricane on the East Coast during September since Jeanne in 2004, the longest period on record without an EC hurricane hit.

The very complicated pattern in both the Atlantic Ocean, as well as the upstream patterns of the continent and Pacific have multiple subtleties of strength and timing that influence the hurricanes movement.

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About 10% of hurricanes that formed East of 35 degrees West have impacted the U.S. since the the satellite era.

We probably won’t have a good handle on U.S. effects if any for a few more days:

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Will Irma curve sharply at the last minute or not?

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Florida hurricane drought is now over 4333 days (since Wilma in 2005). It too is a record since 1850. The prior record had been 2191 days in 1979 to 1985.

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