Irma uncertain beyond 3 days 

Posted: 5:08 pm Tuesday, September 5th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

Please read previous blog posts on Irma for background you may have missed that I won’t repeat with each update. Links at end of this post.

On Twitter and here for days now I’ve been beating the uncertainty factor for the U.S. and must continue to do so. The models have consensus for 3-day but beyond especially by day 5 and beyond they continue to flip flop and vacillate considerably. More than normal.

The same is true for how strong it will be when it threatens the U.S. It does not have to be 180-200 mph near the U.S. if it crosses mountain terrain it will weaken. Other factors not currently in evidence could lessen the winds as well.

As of this writing at least, an out to sea east path looks LEAST LIKELY.

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 4.24.30 PM

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 4.11.33 PM

 

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 4.43.47 PM

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 4.09.58 PM

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 4.35.47 PM

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 4.45.38 PM

“Megacluster” of 3 global models:

DI_W6HqUIAAcfay.jpg_large

AT LEAST THIS WIDE A QUESTION MARK:

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 4.10.53 PM

Image-1

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 9.21.07 PM

In addition to loss of property and possibly lives, serious economic damage to agriculture possible:

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 2.34.32 PM

ETC.

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 2.34.19 PM

OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST:

205803_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

205803_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 5.33.42 PM

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 6.30.27 PM

Population growth/urbanization put more people at risk, including people with little or no experience with such storms, more concrete etc. can exacerbate flooding. More buildings for more damage:

Screen Shot 2017-09-05 at 6.03.22 PM

First Irma post

Second Irma post

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @MellishMeterWSB

 

0 comments