Future path of Irma is NOT certain 

Posted: 6:37 am Wednesday, September 6th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

I don’t really know why so many are behaving AS IF the forecast for days has been one of certain destruction and worst case for Florida and adjacent states when that has never been the forecast here, or by the National Hurricane Center. See my previous blog post if you didn’t already read them past few days.

As I’ve been pointing out, the normal and expected track error 4-7 days out is hundreds of miles! And with this complicated set-up the models have waffled on the end game more than typical… over FL, East of FL, West of FL, over FL etc…

Wind gusts in the storm to 225 mph, jet aircraft and Indy500 car speeds.

Screen Shot 2017-09-06 at 8.36.14 AM

And guess what? Yup, that flip-flop trend continues with the latest suite of numerical equations and model variants. Now most of them have shifted the track East of Florida, but there’s no reason to be sure that’s real for the future or just the models continuing to struggle.

That doesn’t mean people should not follow evacuation orders to play it safe.

Below is the OFFICIAL Hurricane Center projection (but models are farther East):

120029_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

085945_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

Screen Shot 2017-09-06 at 5.28.25 AM

The other point that bears repeating is that those strongest max winds that grab all the headlines are only located near the center of the storm and comprise a tiny fraction of the storm winds. See image below, see super strong winds are not everywhere, just near the red zone:

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Below is the operational deterministic Euro SIMULATED satellite Saturday evening, just a possible snap shot of what things MIGHT look like then:

Screen Shot 2017-09-06 at 6.03.18 AM

 

The bottom line is several equally possible outcomes still exist for the future path of the Irma:

tracks

A lesser chance it goes West to the Florida Pan handle.

Some breezy showers possible from the system in Atlanta Monday and Tuesday, unless the track shifts even more to the East.

My past blog posts on IRMA are here.

HERE IS AN EDIT WITH THE MOST RECENT MODEL OUTPUT as of 8am Wed. Sept 6th:

Screen Shot 2017-09-06 at 8.07.32 AMScreen Shot 2017-09-06 at 8.03.40 AMScreen Shot 2017-09-06 at 8.04.10 AMScreen Shot 2017-09-06 at 8.06.14 AM

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