Steady as she goes on Irma 

Posted: 5:44 pm Wednesday, September 6th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

No huge changes from the last post on Irma. Nothing set in stone of course, but no big swings in modeling recently, which is a nice change compared to so far this week.

The trends are for the eye or center of the storm to pass near or just east of Miami up just off the east coast of Florida to a landfall somewhere on the GA/SC coast sometime Monday PM.

Seems to have at least SOME similarity to Mathew last October, so people in Southeast Georgia, SC and NC need to prepare.

So while EXACTLY where the core of Irma will strike (maybe a near miss of FL) it looks unlikely not to hit U.S. somewhere.

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Ensembles still show enough spread that anyone from Florida through both South and North Carolina need to be prepared. There’s still enough uncertainty that far in the future despite the mean consensus being east-biased now. South Florida still impacted regardless of specifics including some hurricane force winds.

Hurricanes don’t usually stay super strong for long, the record for Cat 5 status is 3 days by Allen and Ivan.

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Intensity forecasts are notoriously unreliable while track forecasts perform much better historically. A landfall of the center is at least possible somewhere from Brunswick GA to Hatteras NC by Monday give or take 50 miles either way.

So there is plenty of reason for concern of major negative impacts on the FL east Coast as well as SC/NC/VA and to a lesser extent the Georgia Coast, but details remain to be determined in later updates.

It’s worth noting that the Euro ensemble is WEST of the consensus more like Ft. Meyers or Naples, just saying as a reminder that U.S. specifics are STILL TOO FAR OFF IN FUTURE FOR CERTAINTY.

By the way we now have 3 simultaneous active hurricanes:


The last time was September 16-17, 2010…

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The *offical* NHC forecast track brings a Cat 4/5 storm center into Miami-Dade County FL Sunday:




5-Day Rainfall Estimate:


NHC Discussion:

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Previous Irma info here.

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