Irma a big worry and still tricky 

Posted: 5:38 pm Thursday, September 7th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

Folks, I won’t go over ground already covered in multiple blog posts since Monday. So if you missed those you may miss a lot of important background, so go back and read what you’ve missed. Don’t want to make these posts a thousand pages by repeating points already made.

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For Florida and/or some nearby state this is a big time damage threat from flooding rain, storm surge, and wind.

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Size does matter for hurricanes increasing wave, swell and storm surge in degree and geographic scope.

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ECMWF model by far performing best so far:

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UKMET model follows above more or less.

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NOT buying this output below verbatim due to the normal and expected margin of error that far in the future, but obviously concerning:

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Again, this is model output to monitor it is NOT my forecast, or anyone’s:

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ONE model, and one run of that model, even a good model does not a forecast make!

Some models still trending West while others trending East, so still not a consensus.

I point this out often in winter when people freak out about snow/ice maps 5-10 days away and it applies here, too… models are not gospel, they are VIRTUAL REALITY not actual reality, they are a numerical SIMULATION of what the atmosphere MIGHT do.

OFFICIAL NHC PROJECTION:

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MISC.:

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Key word is DIRECT.

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Previous Irma info here.

FOLLOW ME on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB

 

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