Dangerous Intense Irma churns on 

Posted: 5:34 pm Friday, September 8th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

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UKMet and ECMWF models have lead the way in favoring a more westward track all along.

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NOT expected to be a hurricane officially in Georgia

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But enough wind even in North Georgia for some damage and power loss in some areas.


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As of now anyway, the worst effects are expected Monday evening and overnight. Winds and periodic rain showers will be on the increase during the day, with spotty gusts of 50-70 mph at times with average winds of 20-32 mph. Winds on Tuesday 15-25 mph on average with gusts to 35. 48-Hour rainfall totals Monday/Tuesday averaging 1-3 inches with isolated totals over 4 inches.

So some areas of flooding are possible and tree damage and some power outages are probable, unless there’s a change in track or intensity, which of course is always possible.

**Bear in mind** my forecast is a synthesis of many models and other data and experience. There are always best case scenarios where we get less than expected, or the worst case scenario or something close, as depicted by this one model below:

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Power model is EXPERIMENTAL, use with caution:

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We will have a more confident forecast once we see what Irma is doing in Florida and where. Be prepared but don’t panic or be hysterical.

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Previous points on Irma here from earlier blog posts.