Posted: 5:23 pm Saturday, September 9th, 2017
By Kirk Mellish
This remains a very dangerous hurricane with real potential to become even more dangerous. It will be horrible for Florida but looks bad in Georgia as well, unless the track or intensity changes.
Forecast models and the National Hurricane Center forecast remain consistent with Irma moving through the Florida Keys and along the west coast of Florida. This is a worst case scenario track for a large storm surge impacting the Keys, and cities like Naples, Ft. Myers and Tampa. With Irma strengthening, this storm surge could be catastrophic. Time of arrival will be tonight in the Keys and late tomorrow into Monday morning for the Florida west coast.
Keep in mind that Irma is still a fairly large hurricane with hurricane conditions extending well out from the center, meaning much of the state of Florida could see hurricane and tropical storm conditions Sunday and Monday with also a threat for numerous tornadoes.
IRMA STILL THREATENS METRO ATLANTA:
COULD ATLANTA IMPACT END UP BEING MUCH LESS? Yes, because of the “cone of uncertainty” normal margin of error shown in white shading in above graphic. That does not mean there would be no negative effects, just much less impact if it went far west or east OR if it weakens faster than projected. But as of now looks like trouble.
Research Group Model below is EXPERIMENTAL, so use with caution:
I am giving specifics of my forecast as always on the radio at WSB AM 750 955FM and on the stations webpage.
Short-wave aloft (dark patch) we discussed in blog last week about to influence future direction of Irma as it moves SE:
FOLLOW ME on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB