Maria can’t be written off for East Coast 

Posted: 10:43 am Saturday, September 23rd, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

As I’ve been pointing out all week on the radio and in frequent blog posts here, great uncertainty existed on any U.S. mainland impacts in the longer term.

I pointed out over and over again that at 5 days and beyond, the normal and expected error on the track is measured in hundreds of miles. And that is true under the best of circumstances where models do not vacillate and/or the steering mechanisms are fairly straight forward… that was never the case for Irma nor for Maria.

Those have been explained in my tweets and here in these blogs.

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The spread in some models ensemble spaghetti has actually increased, indicating growing uncertainty in a safe pass out to sea:

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Always remembers hurricanes and tropical storms are large, often larger than the NHC “cone of uncertainty”. Therefore, impacts of wind rain etc. do NOT require a land strike by the eye or core of the storm!

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See multiple prior posts on Maria for background not included in this post.

 

 

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