Tropical storm warning for North Carolina 

Posted: 11:00 am Monday, September 25th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

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Maria’s coldest cloud tops and deepest convection continue to be
over the far eastern and northern portions of the circulation, but a
small area of convection has re-developed near the center this
afternoon. SFMR data from a NOAA aircraft investigating Maria
indicate that the maximum winds remain near 70 kt, and that the
area of hurricane-force winds extends about 90 nm from the
center over the eastern semicircle.

Maria continues its slow northward trek. A slow northward motion
should continue for another couple of days as Maria moves around
the western side of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic,
but the forward speed is atypically slow due to ridging over the
northeastern United States. A deep mid-latitude trough will be
moving into the northeastern U.S. late this week, which is
expected to cause Maria to accelerate northeastward after 72 hours.
The track guidance remains tightly clustered through the first 48 to
72 hours, but there are still some speed differences beyond that
time. The NHC forecast track lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope through 72 h, and is close to the various consensus aids
late in the period.

Cooler waters, moderate westerly shear, and dry air are expected
to cause a gradual decrease in wind speed over the next few days.
However, Maria is likely to remain a strong cyclone throughout the
forecast period. Extratropical transition is likely to begin in
96 h with Maria completing this process near the end of the
forecast period.

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We need to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for potential development in October:

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