What’s next in tropical weather? 

Posted: 5:37 pm Wednesday, September 27th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

There are two areas of concern for new tropical storm or hurricane development, one shorter term one longer range.

Maria and Lee head out to sea next few days. Meanwhile:

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It’s not unusual for tropical or semi-tropical lows to form on fronts that stall near or in the Gulf of Mexico, especially with strong high pressure to the north. We often see this in June/July and then again late in the season.

As the “Cape Verde” portion of hurricane season winds down (waves from out of Africa) it’s typical for development in late Sept-November to shift closer to the U.S. in the Western Caribbean and Gulf.



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It’s interesting to note the heat content in the West Caribbean is close to the hyper active 2005 season. It doesn’t guarantee storms will form there, but combined with the La Nina will keep conditions favorable for development into the late part of the season:Screen Shot 2017-09-27 at 7.01.58 AMImagehc-1

That is assuming the thing near Florida doesn’t try to become Nate first. This does NOT mean either system has to hit the U.S. or even form.

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Aside from more late season heat, it is also an upper-air pattern known as “a ridge over troubled waters”, because you have lower pressure in the Gulf/Caribbean SE Coast with a tendency for convergence of any swirls. Not the type of pattern you want to see if you want to be done with hurricane season.

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We still have the final quarter of the hurricane season to go, it ends at the end of November.

In recent PAST La Nina seasons (we have a La Nina Watch active now):


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All these numbers will bounce around on a daily basis, the thing to watch will be the TREND.

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