Tropical Storm Nate 

Posted: 5:15 am Thursday, October 5th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

Unfortunately the blog post I put out 8 days ago warning about this potential threat has come to be.

The latest NHC track has landfall Sunday in the area of the LA/MS/AL coast as a minimal hurricane, but…

The NHC has shifted the track West a couple times already, that could continue or it could swing back East. It’s way too early to know where a storm over a thousand miles away will go OR how strong it will be.

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****But anywhere from West of New Orleans to the East Florida Pan Handle should get ready just in case as model spread is still great****


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Impacts for ATLANTA are very uncertain until we get a better handle on the track, which should happen by Saturday. My online forecast is always here. .

How much rain and wind will depend not only on the final path, but how fast it moves and how strong it gets before landfall.

I keep trying to remind news people and the general public that the NORMAL AND EXPECTED average track error is measured in HUNDREDS of miles at day 5 and beyond, but 3 day forecasts of the track ARE good.


Interesting to note that North Gulf Coast Oct/Nov hurricane strikes are quite rare, only 6 since 1950, Ida in Nov of 2009 was Cat 1 just off LA but never made landfall, so last was Lili in 2002:

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