Nate no sure bet for U.S. 

Posted: 12:23 pm Thursday, October 5th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

Tropical Storm Nate’s track continues to be shifted a bit west with each new forecast cycle, still expected to be a hurricane by NHC, but not all models on-board with that.

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I mention this just to underscore the uncertainty, I am not a big fan of the 06z GFS. I also prefer an ensemble approach rather than single operational deterministic model take.

As I said in previous blog post, the normal and expected error 5 days and beyond is measured in hundreds of miles, so it’s just silly to think that ANYONE knows where its going and how strong it will be that many days away.

As it clears land interactions over a thousand miles away, and hunter aircraft fly missions for more data things should come into better focus by Saturday.

Previous NATE post here if you missed it.

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It could still become a hurricane as NHC expects but maybe take longer to do so as it moves farther North and wind shear relaxes over the weekend. But right now you could say it’s a mess with more factors working against it than any other system this season.

That having been said, we’ve seen systems ramp up rapidly this season over warmer than normal ocean waters once shear relaxes.

So lets wait until Saturday morning before hanging our hat on anything.

Needless to say, if we don’t know where and what it’s going to do farther south and west of Atlanta, then we can’t know about impacts here. Stay tuned. Updates on the radio via your favorite streaming device and on Twitter and here in the blog and my 5-day forecast page as needed.

FOLLOW ME on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

 

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