Updated modeling on winter 

Posted: 8:32 am Tuesday, October 10th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

Considerable agreement among the various models on both the temperature and precipitation pattern. It definitely has a LaNina look to it.

The upper left panels (NMME) is the blend of U.S. models, the lower right panels are the international model blend (IMME).

DJF TEMPERATURE AVERAGE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

Screen Shot 2017-10-10 at 8.06.13 AM

DJF PRECIPITATION AVERAGE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

Screen Shot 2017-10-10 at 8.06.43 AM

Suggests the primary jet stream storm track just to our north and west with a SE upper ridge. This much agreement doesn’t happen that often. But, I have seen strong agreement be wrong in the past, so it’s not a lock.

At least for now, no help from the sun for a cooler look as earlier tend has reversed

.

SOLAR SUNSPOT CYCLE:

Screen Shot 2017-10-09 at 4.30.48 PM

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