Warm November not expected 

Posted: 11:11 am Sunday, October 22nd, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

The outlook does not call for a cold month of November per se, but it does NOT look like the abnormally warm weather pattern of September to first half of October will continue.

I’ve been signalling this trend on Twitter for many weeks now, thanks to using old school teleconnection methods like the re-curving Pacific typhoon rule, the Bearing Straits low rule, Alaska-West Canada ridge and hints at a +PNA -NAO -EPO/WPO.

You can google those if interested. But they all suggest an upper-air jet stream pattern with some ridging west and a trough east as shown on previous posts.

Screen Shot 2017-10-22 at 10.52.16 AM

Screen Shot 2017-10-22 at 10.53.42 AM

As an over simplified rule high pressure ridge aloft means warm and dry, and a low pressure trough aloft means cold and dry but with wet in the transitions.

NEGATIVE EPO:

EPOnew_neg_11nov

NEGATIVE WPO:

WPOneg_11nov

nao.mrf.obsnao.sprd2

NEGATIVE NAO:

NAOneg_11nov

POSITIVE PNA:

PNApos_11nov

CFSV2 ENSEMBLE COMPUTER MODEL MEAN has a match:

Screen_Shot_2017_10_22_at_9_47_18_AM

The above are monthly means using analogs connected to the index listed, it is an average not every day or every week of the month.

Computer modeling is on-board lending credence next few weeks:

Screen Shot 2017-10-22 at 10.10.40 AMScreen Shot 2017-10-22 at 10.10.56 AM

 

 

cmc_t2anom_11(41)

NOVEMBER ANALOG PACKAGE:

cd2601_cd_c103_e5c0_15cd_a0c7_ee4f_5c21.294.12.27.19.prcpcd2601_cd_c103_e5c0_15cd_a0c7_ee4f_5c21.294.12.27.40.prcp

NOVEMBER LA NINA CURRENT STATE OF MATCH NOV/DEC:

cd2601_cd_c103_e5c0_5835_4902_8e2b_5bfd.292.6.48.37.prcp

cd2601_cd_c103_e5c0_5835_4902_8e2b_5bfd.292.6.48.10.prcp

 

 

So again I am not forecasting some crazy bitter cold November, but it clearly looks like it will not be another blow torch month. Temperatures near-normal to a little below-normal on average.

Transient patterns mean there will still be mild spells next month.

Rainfall looks a little drier than normal for November in the Southeast U.S.

FOLLOW ME on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB

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