Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

Old rule of thumb for winter

  • 6:34 pm Thursday, November 30th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

I’ve been keenly interested in weather since I was oh 5 years old or so, always wanted to become a meteorologist, although like all boys had some other potential interests as well, just none as strong or consistent.

I can’t quite remember when I first came across this winter prediction “old wives tale” or rule of thumb, I think I was still in high school but not sure.

Keep in mind, I have seen no independent scientific evidence to support it, just like the silly ones about fog days and snow, lightning/thunder days and snow, or any other unsupported old saws like [More]

Big pattern change still expected

  • 9:13 am Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

You know it can’t last forever, the unseasonably warm weather. As I’ve been tweeting and blogging about for some time the signs of change have been growing more consistent over the past couple weeks.

There is now strong agreement among the models as well as analog tools for a jet stream pattern reversal as shown in previous post.

If the global configuration goes full tilt then weather extremes will eventually evolve over the next month in various parts of the northern hemisphere.

Nothing too extreme expected here just yet, but it bares watching longer term.

It’s not surprising given we are entering the winter [More]

Shift in weather long-range

  • 8:09 am Monday, November 27th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Chilly mornings and seasonably mild afternoons for classic autumn weather has been the recent pattern. We trend back warmer than normal this week into next weekend, but by the following weekend the models agree on a shift to below-normal.

It has been mostly dry the past couple months and not much precip is expected the next 5-10 days.

The “warm” upper-level ridge gets replaced by a an upper level trough and the temperature pattern follows the shift aloft at the surface.

The month of November so far:

WxBell

TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER THE 32-46 DAY PERIOD:

These maps have a record of over-doing snowfall accumulation, I do [More]

The season is game on

  • 10:07 am Saturday, November 25th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Happy shopping, happy left-overs, be safe returning home and back to work Monday. Very few high impact weather trouble spots for roads or flights next few days.

NATIONAL WEATHER THE NEXT 3-DAYS:

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Thanksgiving weather

  • 9:01 am Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

My Atlanta forecast.

3-DAY RAINFALL:

Like prayer, the attitude of thanks is quiet, reflective, and humble. But while prayer is normally personal, giving thanks is something we like to share–an expression of the spirit of abundance, inclusion and generosity. A mood of acceptance and gratitude, giving thanks.”- Hearts of Space.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

FRIDAY:

SATURDAY:

SUNDAY:

Thanksgiving travel weather

  • 5:59 am Wednesday, November 22nd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Fog advisory posted in the gray areas could be extended to parts of South and East Georgia until 9am this Wednesday morning:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY:

TODAYS WEATHER:

THANKSGIVING DAY WEATHER:

FRIDAY WEATHER:

SATURDAY WPC WEATHER:

SUNDAY TRAVEL WEATHER:

FOLLOW me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Week of Thanksgiving weather

  • 5:00 pm Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

THANKSGIVING DAY weather in ATLANTA looks to have a mix of sun and clouds with a high around 59 and lows at night of 34-39. But as you’ll see below a system nearby will have rain and IF it were to shift north a chance of rain would come to Atlanta Thursday.

I will update as needed through the week here and on the radio.

FRIDAY shopping looks mostly sunny with highs of 62 and lows at night of 38-42.

These graphics represent the best estimate consensus national outlook:

WEDNESDAY AM:

WEDNESDAY MID-DAY:

WEDNESDAY PM:

THANKSGIVING AM:

THANKSGIVING PM:

FRIDAY:

SATURDAY:

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS:

WxBell GFS and ECMWF Ensemble temperature guidance:

SIMULATED FORECAST [More]

Thanksgiving weather uncertain

  • 7:25 am Thursday, November 16th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The computer models have been swinging wildly back and forth over the past week as they try to determine the week ahead and beyond. This seems likely due to their struggling to handle changing energy and ocean patterns in the Pacific.

There looks to be at least SOME chance of rain Thanksgiving give or take a day, but as of now the odds look SMALL. However, confidence in the forecast one way or the other is low due to the high chaos factor currently in the data.

This is also true for temperature specifics, but as of now the next 15-days look [More]

Not all La Nina winters are the same

  • 12:03 pm Monday, November 13th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

In my preliminary winter outlook I pointed out that ONE starting point as a signal to what this winter might be like is the expectation for a weak La Nina. The “cool” equatorial Pacific Ocean sister to the “warm” equatorial El Nino brother.

There is some disagreement between the U.S. NOAA weather agencies and the Australian on the status of La Nina now and going forward:

Australian BOM:

However, two very important points I try to remind people of is (A) La Nina OR El Nino is just ONE “driver” of seasonal weather, not the only one. And (B) not every El Nino [More]

Weather now through Thanksgiving

  • 11:00 am Sunday, November 12th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Rain chance and clouds will be going away on Monday, followed by weak fair weather high pressure with a moderate air mass. Temperatures will be fairly normal for this time of year to slightly warmer than normal for daytime highs. Highs mostly in the 60s with lows mostly in the 40s.

MONDAY:

TUESDAY:

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY:

The chance of rain returns Friday night into Saturday as the next cold front arrives. After a warmer tend later this week, it turns chilly again behind that front next weekend into Thanksgiving week.

RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY:

GFS SATURDAY AM 11/25:

EUROWX.COM SUNDAY 11/26:

16-DAY TEMPERATURE PATTERN GFS:

Thanksgiving has a chance [More]