Not all La Nina winters are the same 

Posted: 12:03 pm Monday, November 13th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

In my preliminary winter outlook I pointed out that ONE starting point as a signal to what this winter might be like is the expectation for a weak La Nina. The “cool” equatorial Pacific Ocean sister to the “warm” equatorial El Nino brother.

There is some disagreement between the U.S. NOAA weather agencies and the Australian on the status of La Nina now and going forward:

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Australian BOM:

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However, two very important points I try to remind people of is (A) La Nina OR El Nino is just ONE “driver” of seasonal weather, not the only one. And (B) not every El Nino OR La Nina is exactly the same.

Mother Nature is more complex and complicated than that, it is a CHAOTIC system, a “non-linear” system. If it just worked in a strait line then forecasting the future of the weather would be easy.

I’ve explained in previous blog posts over the years all the various “players” we look at for tying to estimate what a coming spring, summer, winter etc will be like. My outlooks attempt to take them all into account as best as I can.

But it is always worth pointing out, because the news media focus so much just on El Nino or La Nina, that not even those are guaranteed to bring just one thing. Although they do “tilt the scale” toward one direction or the other.

So look at the NOAA charts below and see the RANGE of La Nina outcomes we’ve seen since 1950 on temperature and precipitation for La Nina of various intensities.

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Here’s the link for more info.

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

 

 

 

 

 

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