Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

Drier and colder for Christmas

  • 5:42 am Friday, December 22nd, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Our weather pattern will change to cooler and drier in time for Christmastime.

If you’re traveling check the maps below. Next 3-days any significant snow stays along or north of I-70 except central OK and some spots out West/SW.

Longer term we’ll have to monitor a changing and challenging weather pattern to end the month on into early January, as the Atlanta NWS discussion mentions:

***Still looks like parts of the South and Southeast U.S. have to keep an eye on the window of Dec 28-Jan 8th for winter precip but no details are possible at this distance.***

Then “January Thaw” middle of the [More]

Christmas travel weather

  • 6:30 am Wednesday, December 20th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

An active and changeable weather pattern the next 5-15 days presenting challenges for planes, trains and automobiles.

It’ll feel like winter again by Christmas into the early days of the New Year.

There appears to be a “window of opportunity” for some sort of snow or ice system in parts of the Southern and Southeastern U.S around the 29th give or take a few days.

Obviously nothing specific on the charts as of now, so speculative at this point.

Then the “January Thaw” middle of the month.

WxBell

ISOLATED DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM RISK TODAY:

ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY:

AVERAGE RAINFALL ESTIMATE NEXT 24 HOURS:

SIGNIFICANT RAIN AREAS THURSDAY:

FLOODING POTENTIAL FRIDAY:

ESTIMATED [More]

Changeable weather heading toward Christmas

  • 9:58 am Monday, December 18th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

A couple wild jet stream pattern swings are expected over the remainder of the month, with an active couple of weeks there will be some excitement and some news-making weather.

The models are still struggling with the extremes and I suspect that will continue to be a problem.

TODAY:

LATE TUESDAY:

WEDNESDAY:

MORE FRONTS TO COME:

AND A CHANGING JET STREAM:

Resulting in changing temperatures next 16 days from above to below normal:

Confidence in the extended range 7-16 days is lower than normal due to wildly unstable and varying model output that has shown just about every scenario in that time frame and flip flopping back and [More]

Trend to warmer toward Christmas

  • 7:30 am Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The next 5 days temperatures bounce back and forth between a little below normal to a little above and back again, in the 8-12 day stretch there is not much support for cold in the Index tools:

However, we should not discount the -epo as some of the models show that tanking:

Despite the fact that all the lower 48 have now had at least some snow, the far south snow is abnormal for a La Nina winter:

Record snow in our NW suburbs surpassing the Blizzard of March 93 suggests a once in a lifetime event.

There’s unusually strong agreement seen in WSI graphic [More]

Storm post-mortem

  • 12:48 pm Sunday, December 10th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The biggest snow in parts of the Metro area in at least 25 years.

Clearly my forecast snow amounts were a big bust fail in the West and some North suburbs, whereas it WAS correct elsewhere… including the rain-snow line, and where there would be mostly rain and little or no snow. I realize that is no comfort to those impacted by how wrong I was in the W/NW suburbs where my 1-3 inches became a ton more.

Here’s a quote from my blog of last Wednesday morning:

I hope you checked back often. I updated my Friday forecast at 11:30am to 3-6 inches [More]

Snow leaves, but hard freeze follows

  • 7:51 am Saturday, December 9th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

LOCAL RADAR AND TEMPS 730AM:

Beware of icy spots and slippery driving until at least 11 this morning, longer in the far NW where snow was heaviest.

Remember whatever snow or moisture is left on the roads will turn to ice tonight with a hard freeze after 9pm when temps slip below 32 on their way to lows by sunrise Sunday of 20-24.

Temps rise back above freezing after 11 am Sunday.

Winter wonderland for some

  • 1:15 pm Friday, December 8th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

Heavier snow than I expected in earlier forecasts… at least in the areas West and North where it started first.

At least the rate of fall was more than I expected which is why there was accumulation on roads in some areas. When it falls fast enough it can overcome warm ground and air temps that are above freezing.

Many folks in the East and South sections of the metro are still just in rain or a mix.

For the metro area 1-3 inches looks like the most common accumulation to me now in the pink warning area of the metro along and [More]

Winter Weather

  • 9:30 am Friday, December 8th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

As forecast precipitation started out as rain. In areas where the snow started earlier up to 5 inches expected in parts in the “warning area” in the pink below.

As usual we are right on the sharp dividing line between a lot of something and a lot of nothing for some, more something the closer to TN and AL you are and more nothing the closer to FL/SC you are.

With the rain-snow line aloft cutting roughly near and along I-85 give or take 20-40 miles North or South. So the farther North and West of the perimeter you are the better the [More]

Winter Mischief Friday

  • 5:46 pm Thursday, December 7th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

As always some of the details, like start and stop times are hard to pin down across a metro area larger than some of our states. But the main saving grace is no freezing rain is expected so no ice storm worries. Also, air temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for most of “the event”.

DO NOT EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO A BLANKET OF WHITE TOMORROW. It starts as rain or a rain/sleet/snow mix.

Temperatures may drop below freezing after 8pm or so Friday but maybe not until after midnight for many. But this could change so stay tuned.

The mix [More]

Winter weather

  • 6:07 am Thursday, December 7th, 2017 by Kirk Mellish

The first thing to remind everyone is that snow tomorrow is not a certainty.

And if you’ve been reading my blog posts HERE over the past few days you know you can expect the forecast to change with a more volatile pattern than normal in place.

One thing that looks pretty certain is that precip tonight and tomorrow/tomorrow night will be either rain or snow but NO ICE storm conditions expected, although patchy black ice will be possible tomorrow night and early Saturday morning.

SURFACE WEATHER CHART TODAY/TONIGHT:

SURFACE WEATHER CHART EARLY SATURDAY MORNING:

So a far from certain forecast with the usual [More]