Winter weather 

Posted: 6:07 am Thursday, December 7th, 2017

By Kirk Mellish

The first thing to remind everyone is that snow tomorrow is not a certainty.

And if you’ve been reading my blog posts HERE over the past few days you know you can expect the forecast to change with a more volatile pattern than normal in place.

One thing that looks pretty certain is that precip tonight and tomorrow/tomorrow night will be either rain or snow but NO ICE storm conditions expected, although patchy black ice will be possible tomorrow night and early Saturday morning.

SURFACE WEATHER CHART TODAY/TONIGHT:

noaad1

SURFACE WEATHER CHART EARLY SATURDAY MORNING:

Screen Shot 2017-12-07 at 7.47.11 AM

So a far from certain forecast with the usual model disagreements and a fine line between mostly rain or mostly snow Friday. Anywhere in the metro COULD get a coating of accumulation, with mostly just wet roads. However that is subject to change.

As of now accumulation, if any, looks to be mainly grassy areas and other objects above ground like car tops and decks thanks to marginal temperatures and warm roads and above freezing air temperatures today and most of tomorrow.

Temps go below freezing everywhere in the metro after 8pm give or take a few hours.

As of now best odds for snow look to be in the NE GA mountains and in the Southwest suburbs.

NOTE that some places on the northern and eastern edge of the dotted lines may see NO precip at all, while those near or south of the lower line may get just rain.

This forecast is likely to change one way or the other so check back often for updates on the radio and here.

HERE IS MY BEST ESTIMATE ON THE AREA MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEE SOME FLAKES FALLING FROM THE SKY…on and in the dotted line:

Screen Shot 2017-12-07 at 6.04.14 AM

Screen Shot 2017-12-07 at 6.35.00 AM

Exact amounts if any, and timing start and stop times are highly unsure at this time but I’ll be updating this all day today and tomorrow as hopefully the situation becomes more clear.

My forecast available anytime on any streaming device, plus on the radio and here.

SOME MODEL OUTPUT…

GFS TOMORROW MORNING:

Screen Shot 2017-12-07 at 6.43.22 AM

GFS EARLY TOMORROW EVENING:

Screen Shot 2017-12-07 at 6.44.19 AM

CANADIAN MODEL TOMORROW AM/AND EARLY EVENING:

Screen Shot 2017-12-07 at 6.47.33 AM

 

Screen Shot 2017-12-07 at 6.48.04 AM

EUROPEAN ECMWF MODEL FRIDAY AM/END OF DAY:Screen Shot 2017-12-07 at 7.03.12 AM

Screen Shot 2017-12-07 at 7.03.52 AM

WXBELL ECMWF ENSEMBLE 24 HOUR SNOW TOTAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT:

Screen Shot 2017-12-07 at 7.00.31 AM

The above is just model output.

Obviously I don’t follow any ONE model to make my forecasts. I also look at a dozen other models not shown. Sometimes I disagree with all the models. Because it’s not model-ology, it’s meteorology.

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

 

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