Monitoring Monday risk 

Posted: 11:23 am Sunday, January 7th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

No big changes to the past couple of blog posts for now.

This still looks like a marginal and IFFY weather risk for the metro Atlanta area with greater risks in the Mountains and toward Alabama.

This will probably have to come down to just a “nowcasting” thing where we watch the radar and thermometer during the course of the day for any last minute variance from expectation.

Some models keep us dry! Others bring light precipitation BUT NOT until the afternoon when its warm enough to just be liquid. Others bring less than a tenth of an inch moisture with temperatures near or a tad below 32.

At least it can be said that as of now NO model shows heavy precip nor a major ice storm.

As of this writing the main window of concern for the Metro area is sunrise to Noon, give or take a couple hours.

NOAA SURFACE WEATHER CHART MONDAY DAWN:

Screen Shot 2018-01-07 at 4.04.03 PM

NOAA MONDAY END OF DAY SURFACE WEATHER MAP:

Screen Shot 2018-01-07 at 9.53.40 AM

WPC PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST .01 OF ICE ACCRETION:

Screen Shot 2018-01-07 at 4.06.16 PM

50-60% odds as of this post. 20% far South Suburbs.

MONDAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNT ESTIMATE:

Screen Shot 2018-01-07 at 4.17.29 PM

The Atlanta National Weather Service has put out these graphics:

Screen Shot 2018-01-07 at 4.01.00 PM

Screen Shot 2018-01-07 at 3.54.29 PM

Timing and amounts remain highly uncertain so expect forecast updates to follow.

 

 

 

 

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