Old Man Winter returns 

Posted: 9:00 am Tuesday, January 16th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

No snow STORM but still some white stuff with the arctic cold front that slams in from Northwest to Southeast across the region late afternoon and overnight.

Check back here and on radio and twitter for forecast changes and updates today and tonight and for our team traffic reports on roads tonight and tomorrow!

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PURPLE:

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Winter weather advisory starts NOON today Bartow and Pickens counties and starts 5pm elsewhere until 7am Wednesday.

— Amounts will vary greatly across the region because there’s no low pressure system to focus on, odds of little or nothing increase the farther Southeast of I-85 you live. Heaviest amounts probably toward Alabama as well as in the mountains.

— Sunshine today goes away and precip may start as light rain or drizzle briefly before changing to light snow or snow flurries for a few hours.

— To PLAY IT SAFE, be where you want to STAY put by 6pm far NW suburbs and 11pm far SE suburbs that’s when temps fall below freezing, plunging to lows in the teens overnight.

**Keep in mind the amounts and the timing are BEST ESTIMATES the precip could start a couple hours earlier or later than expected and amounts in models range from just a trace to 2 inches but they all vary on WHERE. So location specifics are iffy**

— Good news is that with the timing, we will KNOW ahead of time status of roads and schools etc. first thing tomorrow morning… if not late tonight.

— Anything that falls will stick around tomorrow because temps never get above 32 until Thursday.

— Wind Chill Factor in the single digits tomorrow morning. Winds gusting to 30 mph at times tomorrow.

TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE WEATHER CHART:

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TUESDAY 7PM SURFACE WEATHER CHART:

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TUESDAY LATE NIGHT SURFACE WEATHER CHART:

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WEDNESDAY 7AM SURFACE WEATHER CHART:

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I was hoping that I could be more specific in delineating specific amounts by area, but the models are all over the road on where there is 2 inches or where there is just a trace or nothing and of course they are inconsistent in where the zero and where the two.

Therefore my hand is forced, and the best I can do scientifically without false pretense is this:

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Above amounts also subject to decrease or increase obviously, per my previous blog post on the model range of just a trace or nothing to 2 inches.

There is no winter storm low pressure system, instead it’s a strong arctic cold front with upper-level cyclonic vorticity.

Given the inconsistency in the various algorithms it is not possible to pin-point WHERE it will just be a trace or where it will be an inch or more. I’d rather tell the truth and say I don’t know than give you fake precision.

JET STREAM TROUGH WITH VORTICITY HEADS OUR WAY:

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Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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