Wicked tricky Winter system 

Posted: 4:26 pm Tuesday, January 16th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

The arctic front will slam through here with any rain quickly changing over to snow showers this evening and overnight from NW to SE. It may linger into early tomorrow morning, especially South and East suburbs.

Some models have increased the projected available moisture a tad, others have held steady or reduced ever so slightly so its about a draw.

However, some models are showing the upper-level trough and the attendant vorticity being stronger with an intensifying jet stream. If so, there will be some surprises both on the high side of accumulation and low side as the conflicting dynamics of the system and the mountains struggle for control.

The bottom line is that I still can’t delineate a DEFINITIVE zone of where it will be heaviest or most likely. (except in adjoining states where we don’t live). That will come down to random chance affects of meso-scale forcing like frontogenetic lift that can’t be resolved until we see it on radar and satellite.

I won’t show you a dozen models each showing different things, but suffice to say it’s still a range of no accumulation to 2.5 inches but without any consensus as to where for each.

I’d say SOME tendency for heaviest NW Georgia and middle Georgia, least NE Atlanta suburbs. Again, that is THE MODELS not me.

#I hold to what I’ve said earlier about being absolute in amounts or locations so my hand is forced to broad-brush more than I like to or want to, but sometimes its the nature of the beast.

***So, I still think the best range to give for the majority of the Atlanta Metro area is a coating to half an inch, but if some spot got 1-2 inches I would not faint.

***Thanks to the temperature plunge into the teens by morning travel concerns for roads are legit as patchy black ice is possible. Fortunately, we should know about that later tonight before decisions need to be made for tomorrow.

***Temps don’t go above freezing in the area tomorrow so whatever is on the ground stays into at least Thursday.

***PLAY IT SAFE, be where you need to be (and can stay for 24H or more) if needed by 6pm far NW suburbs, by 8pm downtown, by 11pm far SE suburbs.

***Wind Chill Factor in the single digits to BELOW ZERO (how it feels to exposed skin) tomorrow morning with NW winds gusting to around 30 mph at times Wednesday.

***Take cold weather precautions for people, pets, pipes, and property including autos.


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As always things can and do change, expect updates as needed. Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.