Winter probably not over 

Posted: 9:56 am Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

I mean winter weather, obviously calendar spring starts March 20th while meteorological spring starts March 1st. As I’ve been saying since January 18th there are early indicators pointing to a shift after we flip the calendar page.

The defining weather pattern of the first half of winter across the country is taking a hiatus, but many indicators used in long-range forecasting, not even counting models point to it making a come back in February and March.

Shorter term, the roller coaster on the thermometer is more of a kiddie ride, as seen in the ensemble (same model run multiple times) output from the two main global models:

KATL_2018012300_eps_min_max_15KATL_2018012300_min_max_16

But longer term changes loom, although no extremes seen (yet):

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Screen Shot 2018-01-23 at 9.47.20 AMScreen Shot 2018-01-23 at 9.37.33 AMScreen Shot 2018-01-23 at 9.47.38 AM

 

Screen Shot 2018-01-23 at 9.41.43 AM

WxBell(7 graphics)

But that doesn’t mean there can’t be mild spells in-between cold snaps next couple months as indicated by the 46-day ensemble mean:

eps_t2m_1104h_conus_185

It is in the transition periods from cold to warm and warm to cold that storms arise and we’ll have to keep an eye out for any additional winter precipitation.

IF the modeling is right, and most of them show more or less the same jet stream pattern developing during next month (West Coast Ridge up over Alaska and cross-polar flow into North America and something of a sub-tropical or sub-polar split jet) then the odds of more winter precip would be normal to higher than normal in the South as we move deeper into February.

No “credible” threats for now though in the foreseeable future anyway.

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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