Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

Rain returns, cool off follows

  • 2:02 pm Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

A couple days of showers after the nice break Monday afternoon and Tuesday, sunshine often lifts spirits, especially given the frequent long spells of gloominess we’ve had.

It does not look like non-stop rain, but periods of rain are likely Wednesday and Thursday, details on the radio and in the online forecast section.

Highest flooding risk again to our North and West. No severe weather is expected as of now, but it bears watching just in case.

Dry weather expected on the weekend, with a noticeable chill in the mornings, some LIGHT frost and freeze possible, particularly in the usual colder spots [More]

Weather change still looms

  • 8:08 am Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

If you follow me on a regular basis then you’ve had weeks of advanced notice of a cooler pattern change for March.

In several previous blog posts I’ve shown the crazy links to past extreme weather that has occurred following similar weather patterns to those evolving this year. Most recently here.

It is not unusual to have warm surges in the East part of the country in February in a La Nina. Over half of NYC record highs in February for example have occurred in La Nina winters.

It turns a little cooler by next week but still warmer than normal for [More]

March madness?

  • 4:39 am Monday, February 19th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

March madness may not be restricted to basketball this year.

March and April are “transition” months in the weather and so often produce extreme changes as aging winter tries to fend off the advance of youthful spring.

March and to a lesser extent April are also known in weather circles as “bowling ball” season. That’s a nickname for closed low pressure systems aloft because they look that way on our weather charts. They often bring spring snowstorms and severe thunderstorms.

This happens thanks to the seasonal weakening of jet stream speeds, allowing shorter wave lengths that can “bundle energy” into the bowling balls.

The [More]

Mixed signals for March

  • 4:57 pm Thursday, February 15th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Lets face it, just using climate normal (climatology) says snow or ice of any consequence in Atlanta is most common in January. December and February are not far behind though.

Yes, many long-time residents remember the March “Storm of the Century” blizzard of the 12/13th 1993 and I’ve been here long enough to remember MORE than one rare April snow measured in multiple inches. But these events fall outside the normal bell curve distribution of weather, hence called “outliers” or “tails” in statistical analysis.

On the other hand, there is an old saying in long-range weather rules of thumb that says “what [More]

More spring-like than not

  • 9:12 am Monday, February 12th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Except for a day or so of a wedge before and after cold front passages the next 7 days are biased mild with some 70 degree readings in my outlook and with chilly air fleeting.

We will be sunshine challenged this week with rather limited amounts any given day, however widespread rain is not expected next 7 days, most of what does occur will be light, sporadic and hit or miss.

The Groundhog said 6 more weeks of winter. It’s been mild since that proclamation.

Hard to get winter with a jet stream configuration like the one we have now and going forward [More]

Widespread flooding not expected

  • 10:33 am Sunday, February 11th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

The National Weather Service continues the FLOOD WATCH for the entire Atlanta Metro area and other parts of Georgia in dark green below until 7am Monday:

Like yesterday there will be periods when it is not raining.

I do not think that the rain will be heavy enough nor fall intensely enough (in most cases anyway) for any significant flooding.

However, during heavier downpours beware of ponding on roads and flooding of low spots. Also, keep an eye on the usual flood-prone creeks and streams that are always first to reach or exceed bank-full just in case.

TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATE ENDING 7PM MONDAY:

SURFACE WEATHER [More]

Soggy soils, rising rivers

  • 11:05 am Saturday, February 10th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

The FLOOD WATCH continues for the entire Atlanta metro area but there will be lulls in the rain, especially Saturday. The Bulk of the rain comes overnight tonight and on Sunday.

Because of recent rain over the past week or so soils are already saturated so any additional rain will quickly runoff into area creeks, streams and rivers.

The heaviest rain is expected in the mountains. But over the course of the next 48-72 hours the rain will add up in the Atlanta area leading to isolated flooding of the usual suspect creeks and rivers.

An isolated heavy or strong thunderstorm could be [More]

FLOOD WATCH

  • 3:15 pm Friday, February 9th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Chance of a few showers in some areas goes up Friday after 8pm with scattered showers at times Saturday with SOME dry hours daytime Saturday as well. The bulk of the rain comes Saturday evening through Sunday.

***FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WEEKEND***

More on the radio and on the forecast page as always 24/7.

It will not be a non-stop continuous rain, yet rain is likely both days of the weekend and at any given spot at any given hour the threat of rain will be there, because if its not raining on you one moment it will be somewhere nearby, and [More]

Extended unsettled pattern with rain

  • 5:09 pm Tuesday, February 6th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Just a week ago much of Georgia was looking at growing drought, going forward we may turn to flooding in some areas longer term.

We have an active sub-polar jet stream pattern keeping an active storm track across the South and Southeast U.S. between weak ridging over the Southern Atlantic/Caribbean and a mean trough in the West to North-Central U.S. with surges of tropical moisture up from the Gulf (charts below).

See-saw temperatures in this pattern but on average milder than normal and above-normal rainfall. The pattern looks to continue for at least the next 15 days or so. Thus we  go [More]

Winter Weather Advisory for some

  • 11:08 am Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

The National Weather Service has a Winter Weather Advisory from 1am to 10am Sunday in the purple shaded areas, and a Special Weather Statement in the orange-ish shading:

Range is 3% chance just North of I-20 to 50% North Hall County (above).

SURFACE WEATHER CHART SUNDAY MORNING:

Rain may be mixed with sleet (ice pellets) ANYWHERE in the Metro Atlanta area as the precipitation starts in the wee hours of Sunday mainly after 2am but rain will be predominant for most of us, the exception in the mountains and our far north and east suburbs. But even in our far NE suburbs I am [More]