Extended unsettled pattern with rain 

Posted: 5:09 pm Tuesday, February 6th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

Just a week ago much of Georgia was looking at growing drought, going forward we may turn to flooding in some areas longer term.

We have an active sub-polar jet stream pattern keeping an active storm track across the South and Southeast U.S. between weak ridging over the Southern Atlantic/Caribbean and a mean trough in the West to North-Central U.S. with surges of tropical moisture up from the Gulf (charts below).

See-saw temperatures in this pattern but on average milder than normal and above-normal rainfall. The pattern looks to continue for at least the next 15 days or so. Thus we  go from a developing drought to having to monitor for flooding.

This pattern basically set-up during the last week of January where we get a system passing through the area at least every few days.

500mb flow:

Screen Shot 2018-02-06 at 4.57.44 PMScreen Shot 2018-02-06 at 4.53.39 PM

See (above) the trough in the mean in the center U.S. between high pressure ridges centered off the SW and SE coasts.

 

KATL_2018020700_min_max_16

MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE WEATHER CHART:

5dayfcst_wbg_conus

7-DAY TOTAL AVERAGE RAIN ESTIMATE:

p168i

GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, CANADIAN ANALOG SIMILAR:

cpc_NHEM_f264wbg

Rainfall amounts the next 15 days may be over double the norm for parts of North Georgia.

Most models do not yet see any big cold coming back in any lasting fashion anytime soon. However as I’ve discussed since Jan 18th here in this blog and on Twitter there are plenty of signals from multiple methods suggesting it’s only a matter of time. Perhaps those signals will turn out to be false. But for now it looks way too early to say winters in the rear-view mirror.

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

 

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