Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

Permanent warmth still facing battle

  • 7:03 am Friday, March 30th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

For months on Twitter and here in this blog I’ve been covering how warm spells would come but with periods of below-normal temperatures in-between.

So far most signals support this pattern continuing through at least the first week or two of April.

However, the signals are starting to become more mixed beyond that.

Its been a see-saw past 90 days:

This time of year the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) is a primary driver for temperatures. It does not show signs of going positive anytime soon:

In the Spring a negative NAO will often allow for cool snaps even in the face of warm signals [More]

Changeable the name of the weather game

  • 9:27 am Tuesday, March 27th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Big warm up still expected after the wedge. Opening Day for Baseball has big rain risk and possible lightning for the Atlanta Braves, but most of the rain comes in the evening Thursday.

We have to monitor the risk of a severe thunderstorm Thursday evening but right now does not look significant, but that could of course change.

THURSDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THURSDAY RAINFALL AMOUNT ESTIMATE:

It seems weird to have Easter on April Fools’ Day.

EASTER WEEKEND weather looks dry both days! Cool mornings, mild afternoons with more clouds Sunday than Saturday.

As they have for over a month now, the models suggest the see-saw [More]

The “Wedge” of weather

  • 7:03 am Friday, March 23rd, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

In the scientific literature it’s known as a CAD EVENT.

That’s Cold Air Damming.

It is known colloquially as “A wedge”, that’s the local nickname.

I’ve explained it on the radio and in my blogs dozens to hundreds of times before.

We call it the wedge, because a different air mass wedges against the mountains and into the metro area. The mountains act like a dam. Holding the air mass in place.

There are different types of wedges and they vary in strength and geographic extent. Sometimes they last for days, sometimes half a day. Sometimes they only impact the far Northeast suburbs, other [More]

Another light freeze after the storms

  • 6:20 am Tuesday, March 20th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

The low pressure and frontal system that brought the stormy weather Monday night with scattered damage and power failures will turn into the 4th Nor’ Easter snowstorm and bring another bought of below-normal temperatures to Atlanta.

Some sleet and snow showers or flurries are even possible Wednesday in the high elevations of the Northeast Georgia mountains.

Surface weather chart late afternoon Tuesday:

Severe weather risk Tuesday:

Surface weather chart Wednesday Morning:

Wednesday Night surface weather chart:

FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION:

GFS ENSEMBLE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY AM:

ECMWF Model Ensemble Temperature output:

Up and down active changeable weather pattern expected to continue through April as seen in the mean output [More]

Severe weather risk Monday night

  • 5:59 pm Monday, March 19th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

It won’t rain non-stop tonight and not everyone will get a severe storm.

However, the threat of some damaging thunderstorms is still very real, level 3 on a scale of 1-5 and level 4 NW, this includes the risk of a tornado:

ESTIMATED RAINFALL TONIGHT and TOMORROW:

TORNADO WATCH POSTED IN YELLOW TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA:

Particularly dangerous situation in AL where odds of a strong tornado are 80%

Severe weather risk Monday

  • 11:44 am Sunday, March 18th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

A strong and complex low pressure system and associated warm and cold fronts will be moving across the Southeast states Monday into Tuesday. Rain is likely at times, there will be lulls in the rain for dry hours.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected late afternoon, with a squall line possible overnight. Colder weather will follow by mid week with a light freeze in some areas.

A risk of damaging winds, hail, dangerous lightning and possibly a tornado is ESTIMATED to be 4pm to midnight, give or take a couple hours.

***KEEP IN MIND… there is nothing unprecedented about this weather risk, systems like [More]

See-saw temperature pattern continues

  • 12:13 pm Thursday, March 15th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

In the good ole springtime. The thermometer see-saw pattern will continue through the end of March, and probably half if not all of April.

After yet another light freeze Thursday morning, a big warm up the next 5 days including 70 or above.

Yes rain and a few thunderstorms are likely this weekend into Monday, but plenty of dry hours and dry areas to go around, far from a washout as it looks now anyway.

We need to monitor a severe weather risk for Monday based on CIPS analog guidance.

The systems impacting us ride Northeast up the Atlantic coast and may turn into [More]

Water restrictions lift as drought ends

  • 11:21 am Friday, March 9th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Drought has ended for now in most of the metro Atlanta area, while persisting slightly in NW Georgia and spreading and worsening in central and South Georgia.

Across the state 2.1 million in population is covered by some drought classification.

More rain is on the way the next 3 days:

My local 5-day forecast here.

Repeating weather pattern

  • 8:44 am Tuesday, March 6th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

One low pressure system and cold front today in our area with another cold front passage tomorrow. They turn up the Atlantic coast and become the 2nd big Nor’easter storm which helps bring freezing temperatures back to Georgia in the days ahead.

The 3rd in a series of low pressure systems and cold fronts brings more rain late Saturday and Sunday, which turns into yet another Nor’easter snowstorm for the Northeast and again tries to pull down some more cold air here.

See the sequence:

(WxBell)

The temperature brush back for the rapidly advanced plants is not good. We’ll have to keep an eye [More]

2-day freeze possible

  • 8:36 am Monday, March 5th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

The long term forecast discussed here for over a month now still on track. We had the expected light frost over the weekend and after the return of mild weather, the next cold snap is already on the horizon Wed./Thur. as we see the upper-air pattern flip again as seen in the WxBell graphics:

The European ensemble is showing a couple meager attempts at snow around Blairsville, while better odds are in the mountains of North Carolina.

Back and forth up and down temperature pattern expected to finish the month and start April.

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.