Changeable the name of the weather game 

Posted: 9:27 am Tuesday, March 27th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

Big warm up still expected after the wedge. Opening Day for Baseball has big rain risk and possible lightning for the Atlanta Braves, but most of the rain comes in the evening Thursday.

We have to monitor the risk of a severe thunderstorm Thursday evening but right now does not look significant, but that could of course change.

THURSDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

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THURSDAY RAINFALL AMOUNT ESTIMATE:

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It seems weird to have Easter on April Fools’ Day.

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EASTER WEEKEND weather looks dry both days! Cool mornings, mild afternoons with more clouds Sunday than Saturday.

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As they have for over a month now, the models suggest the see-saw temperature ride will continue into the first part of APRIL, at the very least. And some data suggests the pattern will continue into MAY.

I am not willing to rule out another frost, although the odds of a hard freeze do not look high so far.

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Keep in mind this does not mean every day or every week is cooler than average, there will be warm spells! Warmth in the Euro finally takes hold for good after May 11th.

The ECMWF ensemble suggests on average the heaviest rain is to our Northwest with drier than normal likely to continue in Central and South Georgia next 6 weeks:

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Good part of cool weather as I’ve pointed out before is it caps severe weather at below normal. The nation is running at the 5th lowest level of tornadoes in the past 11 years:

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Below-normal severe weather is expected in the country through the first two weeks of April according to the EXPERIMENTAL long-range outlook from NIU:

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It will be updated in a few days.

Other research indicates that LA NINA years can be MORE active than normal with severe weather in the Southeast. But not necessary in a crazy way. Plus we are in a very weak La Nina season so the impact is questionable:

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The highest threat of above normal tornado activity is OK/TX and into AL/WC Georgia as seen above.

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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