Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

More rain to keep filling area lakes

  • 5:43 am Thursday, April 26th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Reports are that Lake Lanier levels are in the best shape since 2016 at this time of year thanks to a wet couple weeks. More rain is expected today.

There is a risk of a strong storm this afternoon, maybe an isolated severe thunderstorm.

However, as of this morning the risk is just marginal, a level 1 on a scale of 1-5.

It’s possible new data later today could cause the risk to go up so stay tuned:

My detailed local forecast on the radio all day.

MID-DAY SURFACE WEATHER CHART THURSDAY:

RAINFALL 8A-2PM:

RAINFALL 2PM-8PM:

RAINFALL 8PM-MIDNIGHT:

24 HOUR ESTIMATED RAINFALL:

What follows is weather about as nice [More]

Severe or not to be severe: the thunderstorm question

  • 7:38 am Tuesday, April 17th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Many things go into if there will be thunderstorms or how widespread they will be and how strong they will be.

There are different types of thunderstorms. I won’t go over all that now but have covered that in past blogs and will no doubt do so at some point in the future.

This is a simplified explanation of what goes into SEVERE THUNDERSTORM and particularly TORNADO potential. A severe storm is defined as one that can cause damage through wind or hail. (lightning can and does do damage and kill, but all thunderstorms by definition have lightning even weak ones not [More]

Showers move out, cold moves in

  • 12:31 pm Sunday, April 15th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

The threat of severe weather has ended for Metro Atlanta and scattered showers and thundershowers will be ending, but temperatures will slowly fall this afternoon behind the cold front.

A touch of snow may even mix with rain overnight in the higher elevations of the Northeast Georgia mountains.

Clearing for Monday but temperatures will struggle to reach 60 with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s the next couple nights.

LATE SUNDAY SURFACE WEATHER MAP:

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT:

MONDAY SURFACE WEATHER CHART:

MONDAY AM LOW TEMPERATURES:

TUESDAY MORNING LOWS:

However, a quick rebound to highs in the 70s is due Tuesday into next Saturday, Wednesday may reach [More]

Strong Spring storm system to move through Georgia

  • 10:45 am Saturday, April 14th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

As is typical of Spring “winter” storm systems this one will run the gamut from blizzard and ice storm North to flooding rain and some tornadoes South, a pattern that started yesterday and will continue through the weekend.

Most of us in Metro Atlanta stay dry during the daytime, but the chance of a shower or storm goes up before sunset, especially North and West suburbs.

The greatest risk of severe weather comes well after midnight through early Sunday morning. The risk level is currently a 1 on a scale of 1-5, (marginal) but COULD go up to level 2 in updates [More]

Big weekend weather changes

  • 6:05 am Friday, April 13th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

Warmer than normal temperatures continue Saturday (average is now 72) but noticeably cooler Sunday, and then Monday highs will struggle to reach 60 with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s Tuesday morning.

We need to monitor heavy rainfall potential (looks like an average of 1 inch, with isolated higher totals) and maybe some severe thunderstorms in the warm to chilly transition.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE WEATHER CHART:

SUNDAY SURFACE WEATHER CHART:

SURFACE WEATHER CHART MONDAY MORNING:

ESTIMATED AVERAGE RAINFALL SATURDAY:

ESTIMATED AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT:

ESTIMATED AVERAGE RAIN SUNDAY:

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT:

SPC SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

Here is the forecast discussion from the [More]

Bad hurricane season? That’s not the outlook.

  • 8:50 am Tuesday, April 10th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

A very PRELIMINARY outlook for the coming tropical cyclone season was issued last week by some of the pioneers in the field at Colorado State University.

It was incorrectly characterized by many in the news business as a prediction for a “bad” season or “another busy season”.

I would not describe the outlook that way number one, and secondly there are multiple sources that make forecasts not just one! There is no “Royal decree” on the matter.

What is more, the track record of outlooks issued this early is not good. However, the ones that are issued in the coming months show useful [More]

Bouncing temperature pattern goes on

  • 5:40 pm Wednesday, April 4th, 2018 by Kirk Mellish

I don’t have a vegetable garden but I will hold off planting any new sensitive bushes or flowers until around or after April 20th just to be safe given the topsy-turvy pattern that looks to continue.

If you read my blog regularly or follow me on Twitter you know this is just what I was worried would happen since mid-January, unfortunately that fear has been borne out.

Cold snaps and warm spells look to continue to trade back and forth.

At least one more and possibly two more nights with lows in the 30s before this month is done, especially away from the [More]