Summer outlook 

Posted: 8:48 am Friday, May 18th, 2018

By Kirk Mellish

Looking at the condition of the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean temperature cycles (PDO/AMO), along with ENSO, global ocean sea-surface temperature, solar cycles, and spring weather patterns thus far we come up with a list of similar years from the past to attempt to predict the future.

Screen Shot 2018-05-16 at 11.31.34 AM

As the economists say about investing, past performance does not guarantee future results but it does provide a guideline.

Long-range computer models are also consulted as a factor in deciding the outlook, such as these:

Screen Shot 2018-05-14 at 7.01.11 AMJJA18_NAm_tmpJJA18_NAm_pcpScreen Shot 2018-05-14 at 7.10.29 AMScreen Shot 2018-05-14 at 7.10.52 AM

I looked at many other models as well.

My thinking is less hot in the Southeast U.S. than most models, I think the core of the hottest and driest weather this summer will be in in the West and Central part of the country and more normal in most of the east with a coolish bubble around the Great Lakes and New England states.

Here is the RAW outcome of the complete analog package composite for the 3-month period:

cd2601 cd c101 c062 e4db cd6b 3df7 6e85.135.7.33.0.prcpcd2601 cd c101 c062 e4db cd6b 3df7 6e85.135.7.33.56.prcp

Here are the “best-fit” weighted analog composite results:

cd2601 cd c101 c062 2c6d 57e1 5206 915e.133.7.0.3.prcpcd2601 cd c101 c062 2c6d 57e1 5206 915e.133.7.0.30.prcp

As always a reminder that this is the mean for the summer period as a whole not a forecast for everyday, every week or every month. I think the summer heat will come on somewhat gradually in the SE.

So after making some tweaks to the analog years I think this summer IN GEORGIA will average warmer than normal with near-normal rainfall. I do not see it as a brutally hot summer, but certainly warmer than last summer.

I have medium to high confidence in the temperature outlook, but medium to low confidence in the rainfall outlook.

I should also point out that I think if my outlook is off, its’ more likely to be too warm. In other words, there is a better chance that it is a below-normal temperature summer than a hotter than normal summer.

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In case you forgot last summer…

SUMMER OF 2017:

cd2601 cd c101 c062 2c6d 57e1 5206 915e.133.7.15.3.prcp

cd2601 cd c101 c062 2c6d 57e1 5206 915e.133.7.15.33.prcp

Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

 

 

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